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BS: 2020 national election, USA - BIDEN wins Nov 7

DMcG 02 Nov 20 - 04:11 AM
Donuel 02 Nov 20 - 07:11 AM
Mrrzy 02 Nov 20 - 10:07 AM
Donuel 02 Nov 20 - 12:39 PM
Donuel 02 Nov 20 - 12:52 PM
Backwoodsman 03 Nov 20 - 09:28 AM
Mrrzy 03 Nov 20 - 09:42 AM
Jeri 03 Nov 20 - 09:51 AM
DMcG 03 Nov 20 - 09:51 AM
Stilly River Sage 03 Nov 20 - 10:07 AM
Donuel 03 Nov 20 - 10:22 AM
Donuel 03 Nov 20 - 10:28 AM
McGrath of Harlow 03 Nov 20 - 10:42 AM
Bill D 03 Nov 20 - 10:46 AM
Bill D 03 Nov 20 - 10:49 AM
Jeri 03 Nov 20 - 11:00 AM
Bill D 03 Nov 20 - 12:11 PM
pdq 03 Nov 20 - 12:32 PM
Donuel 03 Nov 20 - 06:14 PM
Jeri 03 Nov 20 - 07:22 PM
robomatic 03 Nov 20 - 07:30 PM
Bill D 03 Nov 20 - 07:50 PM
Stilly River Sage 03 Nov 20 - 08:22 PM
Bill D 03 Nov 20 - 08:34 PM
Thompson 03 Nov 20 - 09:03 PM
Thompson 03 Nov 20 - 09:27 PM
EBarnacle 03 Nov 20 - 09:43 PM
The Sandman 04 Nov 20 - 03:21 AM
Joe Offer 04 Nov 20 - 05:10 AM
Dave the Gnome 04 Nov 20 - 05:19 AM
DMcG 04 Nov 20 - 06:02 AM
Backwoodsman 04 Nov 20 - 07:54 AM
The Sandman 04 Nov 20 - 08:47 AM
robomatic 04 Nov 20 - 09:22 AM
Jeri 04 Nov 20 - 10:11 AM
robomatic 04 Nov 20 - 10:32 AM
Stilly River Sage 04 Nov 20 - 10:39 AM
The Sandman 04 Nov 20 - 10:51 AM
Dave the Gnome 04 Nov 20 - 11:24 AM
gillymor 04 Nov 20 - 11:37 AM
Mrrzy 04 Nov 20 - 12:02 PM
EBarnacle 04 Nov 20 - 12:11 PM
Mrrzy 04 Nov 20 - 02:46 PM
The Sandman 04 Nov 20 - 03:25 PM
DMcG 04 Nov 20 - 03:35 PM
Bonzo3legs 04 Nov 20 - 04:12 PM
gillymor 04 Nov 20 - 04:21 PM
robomatic 04 Nov 20 - 04:49 PM
Bill D 04 Nov 20 - 05:12 PM
Donuel 04 Nov 20 - 05:43 PM
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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: DMcG
Date: 02 Nov 20 - 04:11 AM

States are gradually displacing the Electoral College by declaring how their representatives may vote (winner take all or proportional - more are going to proportional)

Unfortunately, doing this gradually causes problems as well. Suppose you win a state with 12 seats by a fair but not huge margin, and I only just win a state with 10. On the winner takes all, you get power with a 2 seat advantage. If they both are proportional, you get say 7 of yours, and I get 5. As I only just won mine, we get 5 each, and again you win with a 2 seat advantage. But if yours is proportional and mine is 'winner takes all', I get 5 of yours and 10 of mine, and end up with an 11 vote lead to take into the college.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 02 Nov 20 - 07:11 AM

The States that have a winner take all electoral votes rule instead of a proportional vote is a Republican invention.
I think 11 states have such a undemocratic winner take all rule.
The history of the electoral collge is eye opening.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Mrrzy
Date: 02 Nov 20 - 10:07 AM

It is not an excuse, there is nothing to be excused. It is a simple and obvious reason why lines are longer [not even counting the social distancing] than last time.

But not as long as when I went to vote for Obama the first time.

Tomorrow, tomorrow... You're only a day aawaaaaaaay


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 02 Nov 20 - 12:39 PM

Voter obsruction makes for longer lines especially in mixed or black areas.

Wait a month for certified results. Tommorow Trump declares victory and then starts his rigged election show with an army of lawyers.

If it goes to the supream court for a third time to decide the election he promised that his newest judge will elect him.

If he wins:

the campaign to criminalize the democratic party and make the country a one party nation will begin.

He will introduce an enabling act that will cement a legal dictatorship just like you know who.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 02 Nov 20 - 12:52 PM

PT Barnum predicted a TRUMP WIN
"There's a sucker born every minute"


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:28 AM

Just seen a FB post, “Go Trump!”, from a Friend in TX who also happens to be my ex-boss.

He’s history now, in every way. Disappointed, but not really surprised.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Mrrzy
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:42 AM

Ok we have climbed the ladder, now for the chute.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Jeri
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:51 AM

I took my car in for work earlier, and have a loaner. I still need to go vote, but I needed coffee to do that. The moved the polling place. I'm guessing they needed to space things out more.

I anticipate (I hope for) a Biden win, and a whiney little baby reaction from Trump. Otherwise, it's just going to be interesting.

I remember that Nixon had staunch defenders right up until he resigned, and the truth came out. Good people admitted yeah, he really HAD been a crook. And then, there were some (Roger Stone?) who liked that he'd been a crook.

Even if Trump wins, if the House remains the same, and the Senate flips, he'll be fairly impotent. But he needs to go play golf for the rest of his life, however long that may be.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: DMcG
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:51 AM

Ignorant UK dweller here. I know that if Biden becomes president-elect he does not become the actual President until January next year. Is that also true of Senators? They are elected today/tomorrow/whenever, but when do they actually take their Senate seat? Is that January as well?


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:07 AM

The senate is sworn in on Jan 3, so the damage Trump can do (with partners in crime) is until then. His executive orders and such can continue up to when Biden is sworn in.

I expect a lot of flouncing around in anger, a total refusal to even pretend to be productive, and possibly Trump "pardoning" himself and leaving the White House to Pence. I predict that Trump will never concede, but I sure as hell hope that Twitter closes his account and doesn't let him have a new one.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:22 AM

Trump is less like Andrew Jackson and most like Andrew Johnson including impeachment and the record 29 Vetos, racism and hate.
Stilly is right about 2 months of mischief and payback.

Biden has learned to not make Gore's mistake of withdrawing or backing down.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:28 AM

Ex President Andrew Johnson did win one more election but as a Senator.
Senator Trump from Florida???


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:42 AM

If the split-electoral-college vote system used by Maine and Nebraska had been in use for all States in the last few elections, and the popular vote had been exactly the same, it would only have changed the result one time - Romney would have won in 2012. And Bush and Trump would both have still been elected President having had fewer popular votes.

So it wouldn't necessarily have solved much. (Of course the change might have altered the voting pattern, since "swing states" wouldn't be the only significant ones any longer.).


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:46 AM

Last night on Lawrence O'Donnell, this guy predicted a Democratic win in both houses of Congress and the presidency. He thinks there will be about a 10 member gain on the House and at least a majority in the Senate. He says it is possible there will be a very large electoral college win for Biden. O'Donnell says Cook is the premiere election analyst in the country.

Nevertheless, I bought extra beer yesterday..........


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 10:49 AM

detailed analysis


Cook Political Report (very reputable)


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Jeri
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 11:00 AM

I might click on your link, but is there a reason you didn't name "this guy"? O'Donnell is hard for me to take.

I said it a while ago (to I-don't-know-whom), I think the election results will be a number of degrees greater than a landslide. I think it will be big enough tonight for as-yet-uncounted write ins to not make a difference. I think it will be big enough so a whiney "they stole the election" Trump can't possibly be taken seriously.

Or maybe I'm just hoping. I think his rallies/his shows involve followers who are loud and fanatical, but not large in number. I hope.

I have too much tying me to this country to move to Canada, but they won't let me in, anyway. Don't think I haven't thought about it.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 12:11 PM

It was just a hurried post... **Charley** Cook.

Lawrence O'Donnell is an extremely knowledgeable expert on how the Senate works, and a virulent critic of Trump... and he follows Maddow.
I can find personal idiosyncrasies in any of the hosts/commentators I watch, but that's why I follow a wide assortment.
Maddow explains the same point 9 different ways until I yell at the screen.."Yes, Rachael, I've got it!" but WOW, how she and her excellent staff find stuff that no one else does!
O'Donnell generalizes and stretches his metaphors until I'm glad he isn't a Republican.
   Joy Reid, not surprisingly, overdoes Black issues and guests... but IS accurate and quick to see thru a bad argument.
   Chris Hayes talks a mile a minute and asks compound-complex questions that often include what answer he expects.

On CNN, Wolf Blitzer plods thru news like he never had an original thought. But he does know a lot...

   Anderson Cooper, like several CNN anchors, pretends to be fair & neutral by having some **conservative** pundit on..like Rick Santorum, who has so many flaws that I suspect that's why he's there... to be a bad example.
   Chris Cuomo is pretty good, but has little sense of humor...

Fareed Zakaria is excellent, but is not on daily.

MSNBC has many 'hosts' they are constantly switching around and 'testing' on late night and weekends, with some pretty good ones, like Jason Johnson....

,,,and I STILL miss Aaron Brown who disappeared years ago. I think he was considered to be boring, but he was good!

I extract what I can from all these people, and even occasionally switch to Fox when there's an important story, just to see how they're spinning it!

News junkie? Me? shucks, I remember H. V. Kaltenborn, Eric Sevareid and Edward R. Murrow!


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: pdq
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 12:32 PM

As far as the Senate, the Republicans will lose Colorado and the Democrats will lose Alabama.

After that, few seats are really in play despite the media hype.

No, seats in Texas, Montana, Iowa, South Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia were never in danger.

Arizona and Maine will probably be flipped to Democrat.

North Carolina is likely to stay Republican but it will be a close call.

At best the Dems can get to 50/50. 51/49 Republican majority is my official guess.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 06:14 PM

Wow everyone is making informed predictions. Could anyone get a perfect score?

Eric Severide and Murrow were great to listen to. Murrow was easier for me to understand.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Jeri
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 07:22 PM

Bill, most of the folks you named are ok. I like Rachel, I like Joy Reid. The other MSNBC hosts irritate me in some way. (Which they can't do anything about.) I just turned from MSNBC to CNN, because of the idiotic "we're so excited" music, which on year, was so loud, you couldn't hear the person talked. Every election, for at least 8 years. I wish they'd just cut the music out and let people talk. Of course, that may just be my own personal bugaboo.

Biden's ahead in NH. (Does it matter that it's <1% of the vote? I was afraid we'd go for whatshisname.

So, do I stay up until the results are mostly in? I can go for 3 days. (Well, I COULD. I'm too much of a wimp now.)


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: robomatic
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 07:30 PM

I don't know what's gonna happen.
Emotionally I'm with Bill D. and Jeri.

Walked to my polling place in the dark and they had the place all prepared for Covid-19 spacing and relatively cheery. Folks were well behaved and happy to be there. There were a variety of circular "I voted" stickers to put on your coat (it was 20 degrees F and clear) including a colorful depiction of an Eskimo woman banging a drum.

Later while dog walking a car drove up to the park with a big magnetic sign with the name of a local woman running in my district. As the driver got out I asked him if he was on her campaign. "I'm her husband!" "Well, I voted for her!" Frankly, even in this environment, I suspect Anchorage, Alaska will come out straight Conservative on every ballot choice. Opposite my votes, but we'll see.

My dog walking partner has heard me describe how four years ago I sat in a Chinese restaurant under the television set and watched the world turn bad. So everytime I talk about getting Chinese food tonight I've been getting a round of "Don't you WANT us to win?". Another acquaintance spread it around that they wouldn't vote for anyone. So I left them a message: "I've never convinced anyone of anything political, but if at least you let me know you vote today, I'll get that on my resume for the rest of my life!"

Staying away from the news until tonight, then I'm going to see what's going on in FL (whose polls should be closing right about now) and if I can get some sleep I will and will check in tomorrow morning.

Real Democracy is not for sissies.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 07:50 PM

I switch back & forth.. but despite the music, Steve Kornacki has the most clear details about what is happening with county votes and comparing them to 2016. Ohio numbers coming in favoring Biden...


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 08:22 PM

You'll drive yourself nuts if you listen to the early returns. I turned it on briefly to hear them talking to a Trump apologist on PBS and decided to wait a while.

This would be a good evening to stream something on Netflix and wait till time for your local evening news to turn on the TV at the very earliest. Seriously. Human nervous systems don't do well with all of this back and forth stuff. If I had real discipline I'd wait till tomorrow morning to turn on the news.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 08:34 PM

I don't get subscription channels. I have been dabbling in TCM at times for laughs..

Just saw the last hour of "Lolita".... umm... I can't imagine what the early scenes could have done to clarify ..or justify... the staging, acting or plot twists at the end...


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Thompson
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:03 PM

BBC World Service (radio) is doing a good on-the-spot coverage, lots of interviews. You can get it on internet radio.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Thompson
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:27 PM

Where's the best wonkish site for charts? The NYT has a live map, but it doesn't show how many electoral college votes the states have, for instance.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: EBarnacle
Date: 03 Nov 20 - 09:43 PM

The quote about counting the votes is usually attributed to Josef Stalin.

Lady Hillary and I worked the polls in NJ today. The only problem we had was getting the drop slot for the secure mail ballots to open so people could vote. Some of them went to other drop boxes. We got it working about 45 min after the polls opened.

Despite it being prominently posted, there were a couple of people who refused to mask up and were not permitted to vote. There were two who insisted on voting by machine and left without voting. No signs of intimidation. Just about everyone was orderly.

The new system worked reasonably well and, because it is paper based, will be harder for outsiders to tamper with.

Early and mail in voting was very heavy in our county.

Election Day turnout was lower than for the primary but that may have been due to a massive mail in return in our county. Also, we were unable to count the mailins who dropped their ballots in other boxes today.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 03:21 AM

did tramp really call litlle pomp, little pimp


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Joe Offer
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 05:10 AM

So, Trump claims victory and Biden asks for patience until all the votes are counted. Even FoxNews questions Trump's victory claims.
I still think Biden will win, and that the Democrats will take both the House and Senate. But it's not the total victory we had hoped for.
-Joe-


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 05:19 AM

I hope you are right, Joe.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 06:02 AM

I also think Biden will win, but am by no means confident, nor have I been for weeks.

On the other hand it looks like the Republicans could keep control of the Senate. It that happens, and Biden wins, we will have the stand-offs that were common during Obama's years.

Meanwhile I am wondering how this uncertainty will affect the UK-EU negotiations, but that's a topic for a different thread!


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 07:54 AM

Trump’s behaviour in his ‘stop the count, I’ve decided I won’ declaration is less like that of the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth, and absolutely like that of the tin-pot dictator of some third-world banana-republic. And still, I keep seeing people on t’Interweb proclaiming him ‘the greatest president ever’.

As a life-long admirer of the US and (most of) its people, I’m finding very little to admire right now (apart from their great music and musicians!).


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 08:47 AM

the bokies at1.46 gmt have biden 1/3 on to win


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: robomatic
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 09:22 AM

Backwoodsman. Thanks for the good wishes and I understand the doubts.

I'm disappointed and incredulous that so many of us have voted out of a willingness to believe nonsense over the evidence of our (evidently lying) eyes. And fear.
The Republicans have done some very good campaigning in critical areas and somehow the pollsters have not got a grip on the public sentiment that literally counts toward the votes. Likewise the Democrats do not have effective counters to the swamp of misinformation, despite such clever commentators such as John Oliver and Stephen Colbert (and all of Public Media).

Emotionally I'm with Joe Offer. But we need to be learning up on what makes people believe what they believe. This is not 'newly' new, but the technology changes of the latest generation have put our ability to judge under new stresses.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Jeri
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 10:11 AM

Somehow, stupidity has somehow become an honorable trait. I think it all started with Jerry Springer, and people throwing chairs at others. That may just come down to things that irritate me, though.

We need to find out how to make intelligence and truth more important than supporting one's club.

Biden's going to win the Presidency. Trump will then challenge the win in the courts. I have to believe that no matter what the personal beliefs of Supreme Court justices, the Constitution and the Law are more important the making a selfish, crooked politician happy. There's no room for interpretation. The evidence is the evidence is the evidence, and the law is only flexible to a point. I think he'd have to show cause to believe something illegal happened, but I'm not a lawyer.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: robomatic
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 10:32 AM

It's not stupidity, though that is a factor. And it goes far before the times of Jerry Springer. 'Member these hoary sayings:

"There's a sucker born every minute!"

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

"Few peoples' confidence in democracy would survive a 30 minute conversation with the average voter."

I could go on, but I won't.

It's not just America, either. There is a confidence in 'The wisdom of crowds'. But then there's the Dutch Tulip Mania. And "irrational exuberance."

I think more appropriate and somewhat hopeful is Lincoln's quote: "You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."

But let us not forget Trump's interjection "-and that's good enough for me!"


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 10:39 AM

Once again pundits with their predictions of huge Biden leads have worked against the body politic. They follow the money, which doesn't actually say anything except express wishes, and they don't take into account the people who refuse to participate in polls.

Again it must be said - ignore the polls and vote. Hopefully enough people did that this year to evict Trump from the White House.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 10:51 AM

i think he will win but he will only have about five votes over, say 275


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 11:24 AM

Biden leading by 238 to 213. Is that promising?


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: gillymor
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 11:37 AM

Over here they've got it Biden 224 trump 213, DtG but it looks like Biden has a clearer path to 270. Still, it ain't over 'til it's over.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Mrrzy
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 12:02 PM

Aaaaaaarrrrrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: EBarnacle
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 12:11 PM

The NYTimes
On Politics
November 4, 2020

It’s Wednesday, and this is your politics tip sheet. Today, there’s only one big tip we can think to offer: Be patient.


An election season defined by anxiety appears likely to drag on for another few nerve-racking days. How fitting.

The resounding, across-the-board victory that Democrats had hoped they might see last night — encouraged by their strong showing in the 2018 midterms, and yet another year of overly favorable polls — never materialized.

At the same time, what at first blush may have seemed as if it was shaping up to be a surprisingly robust Republican showing was actually much less certain. The first ballots to be counted in many states were those cast on Election Day, giving an illusion of Republican mega-strength that will probably erode across the board as more mail-in ballots are counted.

And so now, we wait.

Of course, that’s not what President Trump wants us to do. He got onstage at the White House around 2:30 a.m. and unleashed an attack on the country’s very democratic institutions.

“We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election,” he said, falsely claiming that the early returns gave him an insurmountable lead and baselessly calling the vote-counting process “a fraud on the American people.” He declared — alarmingly — that he intended to bring his complaints to the Supreme Court, with its newly strengthened conservative majority, and ask it to stop counting ballots.

“We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court,” he said. “We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list, OK? It’s a very sad moment.”

Joe Biden appeared to see this coming — and indeed, Democrats had worried about such a scenario occurring in a tight race. By the time Trump spoke, Biden had already pre-empted the president, giving his own remarks over an hour earlier at a drive-in event in Wilmington, Del. In a brief address, partly off the cuff but mostly off a teleprompter, Biden declared himself optimistic and insisted that every vote must count.

“I’m here to tell you tonight, we believe we’re on track to win this election,” he said. “We knew because of the unprecedented early vote and the mail-in vote, it was going to take a while. We’re going to have to be patient until the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. And it ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.”

Republicans yesterday did win closely contested Senate races in at least two states, Alabama and Iowa, and flipped at least six House seats, giving them a four-seat net gain in that chamber so far.

But Democrats also picked up two Senate seats, in Colorado and Arizona, and close races remain uncalled in North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Maine — most of them potential Democratic pickups. The party’s path to a Senate majority may have narrowed somewhat, but the fate of the chamber, it’s safe to say, still hangs in the balance.

Where we’re at
Based on the states that have already been declared, Biden needs 43 more electoral votes to get to the golden number of 270, and Trump needs 57.

The three Northern states that flipped for Trump in 2016 — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — remain uncalled. So do North Carolina and Georgia, both of which went for him in 2016 but have been heavily targeted by Democrats this cycle, and both of which are double-whammies: They have contested Senate races hitched to the presidential contest.

In many of these still-uncalled states, Trump holds the lead in terms of ballots counted — but that could easily change as more mail-in ballots and some in-person votes continue to be tabulated.

In Georgia, as Biden mentioned in his speech, Democrats are feeling bullish. Many more votes are yet to come in from the Atlanta area; in DeKalb County, for instance, one of the state’s largest, early in-person votes had not even begun to be counted until last night.

In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, votes were not allowed to be counted until yesterday morning, so it could take at least another day for all ballots to be tabulated.

When exit polls disagree
One lesson that we learned — well, relearned — last night is that polls cannot be trusted to predict the outcome of an election. Prepare yourself for a lot of articles about this fact.

Yet another reminder of this verity arrived via the exit polls, when two separate voter surveys yesterday showed some widely diverging results.

The traditional exit polls, conducted by Edison Research on behalf of a consortium of news organizations, showed that Trump was neck and neck with Biden among white college graduates, including a virtual tie among white women with college degrees. This was in defiance of almost every major poll before the election.

The Associated Press and NORC’s new, ambitious, 140,000-interview voter survey, VoteCast, had results that were more in line with expectations: Biden was ahead among white women with college educations by more than 20 points, even as Trump managed to pull closer to even with him among white college men.

This was only one of many points of departure between the traditional exit polls, which tended to show results slightly more favorable to Trump across the board, and the new A.P./NORC study.

As you get ready for a season full of polling takes, expect these voter surveys to be a major focus of discussion and hand-wringing.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Mrrzy
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 02:46 PM

Aaaaaaaaauuuuuuuuugggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: The Sandman
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 03:25 PM

biden 248 trump , trump214 is a dead donald


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: DMcG
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 03:35 PM

Perhaps, Sandman, but this clip from the Guardian is sobering.

Now, if Trump wins the election, Trumpism wins. But if Trump loses the election, Trumpism wins too.

A sense of grievance over a narrow defeat, fuelled by the president’s bogus claims of fraud and amplified by conservative media, will thrive again a Democratic president. The “Make America Great Again” movement – with its nostalgia for a country that never was – was built for opposition rather than incumbency.

There’s more, Republicans appear to be on course to hold their Senate majority and may end up gaining seats in the House of Representatives. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Lindsey Graham were rewarded, not punished, for normalising Trump and enforcing his will. The message to other Republican aspirants is clear. This is Trump’s party now.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 04:12 PM

Will it ever end, I would rather listen to a recent Shirley Collins album than anything to do with their preposterous errection!!!


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: gillymor
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 04:21 PM

"Trumpism" is the last thing on my mind right now. It appears that we have flushed the orange turd and that is cause for celebration.


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: robomatic
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 04:49 PM

As to the query "IS that promising" about the electoral vote. The short answer is "no". The electoral college is a way to sum up the state by state totals where a vote within a state that involves the merest of majorities puts the totality of the state's vote count (the sum of the state's number of representatives and senators) into the candidate's bucket. There are a couple of states with proportional counts, but the far greater majority have a winner take all philosophy. So it comes down to a vew states with contested or incomplete or both counts.

Right now it's neck and neck and it's going to stay that way for anything from a couple of days to a couple of months.

By the way, I understand the desire to be helpful but downloading an entire New York Times article into an opinion thread is not that helpful (and I'm guilty of just the same thing).


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Bill D
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 05:12 PM

As of this post, Michigan has been called for Biden.. if that holds, it gives him 264..... and he's leading in Nevada, which has 9. Math... and Penn. is still being counted.

Trump, of course, is suing everyone connected with counting,,, "to 'review' all ballots where we didn't have access."


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Subject: RE: BS: 2020 national election, USA
From: Donuel
Date: 04 Nov 20 - 05:43 PM

In local elections DC has legalized magic mushrooms. I voted against sports betting but it won 66 to 34.


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