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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Steve Shaw 27 May 19 - 09:03 AM
DMcG 27 May 19 - 08:25 AM
Iains 27 May 19 - 06:38 AM
Steve Shaw 27 May 19 - 06:15 AM
Iains 27 May 19 - 06:07 AM
Backwoodsman 27 May 19 - 05:58 AM
Steve Shaw 27 May 19 - 05:54 AM
Steve Shaw 27 May 19 - 05:45 AM
Dave the Gnome 27 May 19 - 04:03 AM
Dave the Gnome 27 May 19 - 02:39 AM
DMcG 27 May 19 - 01:29 AM
Jon Freeman 26 May 19 - 11:04 PM
Stanron 26 May 19 - 10:39 PM
Iains 26 May 19 - 10:18 PM
Stanron 26 May 19 - 09:13 PM
Steve Shaw 26 May 19 - 09:01 PM
Stanron 26 May 19 - 08:47 PM
Steve Shaw 26 May 19 - 08:45 PM
Stanron 26 May 19 - 08:31 PM
Steve Shaw 26 May 19 - 06:57 PM
Stanron 26 May 19 - 06:32 PM
DMcG 26 May 19 - 02:32 PM
DMcG 26 May 19 - 02:23 PM
DMcG 26 May 19 - 02:21 PM
David C. Carter 26 May 19 - 02:19 PM
Nigel Parsons 26 May 19 - 02:06 PM
Nigel Parsons 26 May 19 - 11:12 AM
Jim Carroll 26 May 19 - 10:42 AM
Iains 26 May 19 - 05:44 AM
DMcG 26 May 19 - 05:01 AM
Iains 26 May 19 - 04:55 AM
DMcG 26 May 19 - 03:45 AM
Backwoodsman 26 May 19 - 02:51 AM
Iains 26 May 19 - 01:59 AM
Steve Shaw 25 May 19 - 06:57 PM
SPB-Cooperator 25 May 19 - 06:07 PM
Backwoodsman 25 May 19 - 05:50 PM
Steve Shaw 25 May 19 - 05:40 PM
Steve Shaw 25 May 19 - 05:12 PM
Nigel Parsons 25 May 19 - 05:00 PM
Steve Shaw 25 May 19 - 04:50 PM
Nigel Parsons 25 May 19 - 04:20 PM
Jim Carroll 25 May 19 - 02:53 PM
Nigel Parsons 25 May 19 - 02:02 PM
Jim Carroll 25 May 19 - 02:00 PM
Nigel Parsons 25 May 19 - 01:55 PM
Jim Carroll 25 May 19 - 10:33 AM
Nigel Parsons 25 May 19 - 10:23 AM
Jim Carroll 25 May 19 - 07:52 AM
DMcG 25 May 19 - 06:16 AM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 May 19 - 09:03 AM

65% of Labour voters voted remain in 2016. A poll commissioned by Hope Not Hate suggests that 1.4 million Labour leave voters have changed their minds. That alone would reverse the result. Brexiteers are desperate to avoid another referendum, and their fear has nothing to do with "betraying democracy."


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 19 - 08:25 AM

Perhaps, Steve. But we can't really know. Some people who voted Labour may be in favour of leaving, but strongly opposed to no deal. There are few homes for such people.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 19 - 06:38 AM

Interesting that the highest turnout was in remain areas. From this it can be read that having voted for a referendum to leave already, a fair number of brexiteers refused to play in this election.
Now doubt they are saving their efforts for the forthcoming general election.

This is assuming Steptoe senior can manage a no confidence vote, after all the electorate have already demonstrated their zero confidence in both major parties.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 May 19 - 06:15 AM

A large majority of Labour voters voted remain. If you were a minority leave Labour voter, you either stayed Labour or went Brexit party. If you were a majority remain Labour voter, you either stayed Labour or went LibDem/Green. It's a pretty fair guess that much or most of the large LibDem/Green gain came from Labour protest voters. And it's a pretty fair guess that most of the voters who stayed Labour are remainers. Denial is useless: leave would struggle if we held another referendum. Especially with these Tory bubbletwits going large on the impossible no deal.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 19 - 06:07 AM

I would definitely dispute your 50/50 Labour guesstimate,

The in out shake it all about hoky coky party.

Who knows what their brexit stance is?

They certainly do not


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 19 - 05:58 AM

Strange, innit? The BrexShitters are soiling their boxers in case we have another referendum, but they’re happy to accept the EU elections as, effectively, a referendum ‘confirming’ the original referendum!

You really couldn’t make it up!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 May 19 - 05:54 AM

I would definitely dispute your 50/50 Labour guesstimate, Jon. Most Labour voters are remainers. Some of the minority "leave" Labourites would have jumped ship to the Brexit party, but I suspect that a far larger number of "remain" Labourites would have gone to the LibDem/Green side. Most of those who stayed with Labour would have been remain voters.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 May 19 - 05:45 AM

The turnout was under 37%, just about half of the referendum turnout. Any analysis should include that in the reckoning, especially by those who would like to view this as another referendum on brexit. Trying to make your case by counting seats is far less safe than counting the numbers who voted for remain parties versus leave parties, the latter being far more in sync with what we did in the referendum. Even if you count all the Tory votes as leave (unsafe) and all the Labour votes as remain (less unsafe but still a bit too blunt), it's clear that leave would struggle in another referendum. Which is precisely why leave don't want one, whatever burbling you hear from them about its "betraying democracy," etc. Basically, what seems to have happened is that the Brexit party mopped up almost all the Ukip vote plus a few disaffected Tory leavers and probably far fewer disaffected Labour leavers, whereas the remain protest vote went to the Greens and the LibDems. A lot of protest voting on a low turnout informs little about the way politics will go in the future.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 May 19 - 04:03 AM

A good and very fair review. In my opinion

From Sir John Curtice, professor of politics.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 May 19 - 02:39 AM

As far as I could see before I went to bed, most of the Brexit party gains were from UKIP. If they had no rebranded themselves it would have been a very good gain for UKIP but far from the landslide that the press are reporting.

Far more significant are the gains made by the pro-remain factions of LibDem, Green and the SNP. Both main parties suffered because of their stance, or non stance, on Brexit.

Europe wide the picture seems similar. Everyone is cheesed off with main stream politics. The populist right wing and the Greens have both done well because of this.

It seems that when a power vacuum is left by the mainstream, sensible people vote to save the planet while the easily led vote for those who tell them what they want to hear!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 19 - 01:29 AM

Let's not forget these are Europe-wide elections. I think this clip from the Guardian has it about right:

A more complicated, ad hoc, but still fairly comfortable pro-European, mainstream majority is, naturally, a somewhat less exciting narrative than a tidal wave of populism sweeping away the foundations of the EU. But it looks like that is the outcome of these elections.

Taking a more parochial view, the Brexit Party has undoubtedly done well, and it looks like they will reach at least 29 or 30 seats. That is at the top end of my estimates (which were based on recalling UKIP had 22 seats rather than the actual 24, but let's not quibble.).

To me, that says the future path of the U.K. now rests on the anonymous, probably Tory, MP who is genuinely certain that to leave with no deal would be a disaster for the country but also is from an area which has just voted for the Brexit Party in large numbers. Such an MP is also probably aware that if his or her sincere belief in the problems of a no deal come to pass, the Brexit Party voters would blame the MP, not themselves.

What these MPs choose to do will be critical.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jon Freeman
Date: 26 May 19 - 11:04 PM

Last two posts are a jumble. If you are going to post tabular data, surround it with <pre></pre>

Party                   Out      In

Bredxit                  28
Lib Dems                         15
Lab ? 50/50               5       5
Green In                         7
Conservative             3   
Welsh Nationalists In             1

totals                   31      28


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 May 19 - 10:39 PM

I interpret that as

Party                   Out             In

Bredxit                28 seats
Lib Dems                               15
Lab ? 50/50 5                            5
Green In                                 7
Conservative            3   
Welsh Nationalists In                   1

totals                  31             28

Not a million miles away from the referendum result.

Maybe we should vote again.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 19 - 10:18 PM

The reality of the outside world will never perforate the bubble on this forum. Anything they do not like they delete.
They cannot delete brexit though.

Party       Vote Share Brexit Stance                         EU Seats

Brexit Party 31.6%    OUT                                    28
Lib Dem 21.3%         In                                     15
Labour 14.1%          God Knows they certainly dont.         10
Green 12.1%          Mainly IN                              7
Conservative 9.1%    Inveterate liars (some in/some out)    3
Plaid Cymru 1%       In                                     1
SNP 3.5%             In
Change UK 3.4%       In
UKIP 3.3%             OUT


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 May 19 - 09:13 PM

From

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/26/european-elections-2019-results-maps-brexit-party-expected-win/

Brexit party    28 seats
Lib Dems       15 seats
Labour          10 seats
Green Party    7 seats
Conservatives   3 seats ouch
others          1 seat

To suit your arguments you move the goal posts to where you shot the ball. In any other context this would be called cheating.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 May 19 - 09:01 PM

From the Guardian at 1.18 am:

"Potentially most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%."

And I'd add to that that most people who voted Labour (not included in the GuRdian's assessment) would have been remainers, as the vast majority of those who have jumped the Labour ship would have shifted to the Brexit brigade. And it's a bloody good bet that the majority of those who stayed loyal to the Tories were the Tory remainers. So that 40.3% was actually quite a lot higher. Be very afraid, Brexiteers. Especially of a second referendum!

I'm dealing with the solid numbers here, Stanron. Telling me I'm "wrong" without qualification is, frankly, puerile.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 May 19 - 08:47 PM

You are wrong.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 May 19 - 08:45 PM

The electoral results are what I referred to, nothing to do with "alliances." There is nothing tonight in the numbers that brexiteers can take comfort from. Which is precisely why you chaps are scared shitless of another referendum. Bray all you like about Labour/Tories getting a kicking. But the bald fact is that Labour plus Libdems plus Greens plus SNP plus ChangeUK far outweigh the dedicated brexit parties, even if you lump the Tories in with them. On top of that, it's protest voting on a low turnout. Extrapolate at your peril.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 May 19 - 08:31 PM

Alliances may or may not be formed by the elected parties. Otherwise it's either the electoral results or "lies, damned lies and statistics".


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 May 19 - 06:57 PM

You should worry. Sure, there's a massive protest vote going on. But in almost every result I've seen so far, the votes for Labour plus LibDem plus Green plus ChangeUK far outweigh the votes for Brexit plus Tories. Also, as ever, turnout numbers are low. Make whatever predictions you like, but a referendum tomorrow would yield a remain vote. Which is why you don't want one. As it happens, neither do I, but hey ho. Tonight may change the debate, but the debate is shite anyway, and it's a rock-solid cert that the next parliament will contain not a single Brexit party MP.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 26 May 19 - 06:32 PM

Anyone watching the results? Has reality landed? I bet that very few people here will take the result as a substitute for a second referendum.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:32 PM

John Howarth MEP (Labour) has sent an email to me and presumably hundreds of others. He could not have been more scathing of "the Labour High command" and says if they had deliberately set out to lose the election they could have have been more successful at it. Really startlingly strong condemnation.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:23 PM

In terms of seats that is. The percentage vote is predicted to be a few percent higher.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:21 PM

The current prediction - and that is all it is - is that the Brexit Party will get exactly what UKIP got last time.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David C. Carter
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:19 PM

Marine Le Pen for the R.N. party in France.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:06 PM

As polls start to close across the EU, counting in UK starts.
Early showings of percentage turnout for some UK regions are being posted in The Guardian
Predictions based on exit polls are also given for some countries.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 26 May 19 - 11:12 AM

The mane's Jim by the way - only mental morons who have no other way of trying to talk you down use "Jimmy"
As much as I disagree with you, I don't place you among that company of one - don't let me down

I was not trying to talk down to you, just responding. I have also made clear in the past that my name is 'Nigel'. I have avoided misusing your name since you earlier made it clear you only wished to be called 'Jim'. My response was to your use (as in your last post) of 'Nige'.
I will now start referring to you as 'Jim' again, on the assumption that you can show the same consideration.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 26 May 19 - 10:42 AM

"the EU about publishing results/polls until 10pm Sunday"
No polls published Nige - just predictions
The Greens seem to have come out best - thank christ Farage's headbangers got trounced
"No, Jimmy I'm suggesting that the mods are following guidance from remainers "
What a strange suggestion - why not take it up wwith the mods??
The mane's Jim by the way - only mental morons who have no other way of trying to talk you down use "Jimmy"
As much as I disagree with you, I don't place you among that company of one - don't let me down
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 19 - 05:44 AM

Turnout does not affect percentages of course.

I have no doubt this will form the basis of numerous arguments revolving around:

Total population
Total enfranchised
Total who bothered to vote


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 19 - 05:01 AM

Turnout does not affect percentages of course.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 19 - 04:55 AM

Better get the groundwork in early then. Historically the UK has a low turnout for EU elections,like much of Eastern Europe.


http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 May 19 - 03:45 AM

There will be no clarity from the results of the EU elections - everyone will spin the results as the always do. Few doubt the Brexit Party will get a high percentage but that is hardly significant in itself, since it potentially had at 17.4 million to draw on (plus some percentage of people who didn't vote). There is a good case that getting less than 52% of the vote shows no deal to be not what people voted for, for example.

The results will be spun by all sides. Have no doubt.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 26 May 19 - 02:51 AM

"I think we should try to talk about brexit from now on, insane though that suggestion might be..."

And, of course, fastidiously ignore the RWE bully-boys, trouble-makers, and nit-pickers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 26 May 19 - 01:59 AM

It would make more sense to delay further discussion of brexit until the outcome of the recent EU voting is known. Why conjecture when in a few hours absolute facts can be used.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 May 19 - 06:57 PM

Well, SPB, you can delete vexatious posts but that leaves a legacy of hanging posts that require a rather large input of time in order to deal with them. I wouldn't complain. The priority is to get the poison out, and I think we can all be man/woman/person enough to deal with the residue. Now, interesting sideline though this is, I think we should try to talk about brexit from now on, insane though that suggestion might be...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 25 May 19 - 06:07 PM

The only problem I have with deleted posts is that other posts responding to them do not make sense.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 25 May 19 - 05:50 PM

As far as anyone outside the Mods group knows, the only person who ‘gives guidance’ to the Mods is Max Spiegel who, as the owner of this site, is bloody well entitled to do so without criticism from our resident Right-Wing extremists, abusers, and bully-boys.

There have been a number of my posts deleted but, being an adult, I accept it without the pissing and moaning we’re seeing from the above-mentioned individuals.

Perhaps if those people were to GTFU, and behave like decent, civilised human beings, this forum would be a far nicer place.

And, if this post disappears, so be it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 May 19 - 05:40 PM

No mod is following any guidance from anyone and I'm getting a bit sick of these insupportable attacks on them. I don't know how many mods operate on this board, but I only know three of them. Two of them dislike me intensely and I've had many a spat. The other is neutral and doesn't engage with me at all easily, though (I think) we enjoy at least a bit of mutual respect. Whatever else, they are all very strong-minded individuals. I have little idea as to which one monitors this thread but if they're taking "guidance" well all I can say is that it isn't coming from me. I'd like to suggest that, whilst enquiry of mods may well be legitimate, public criticism of them is rarely if ever justifiable. It's a good job I'm not one, because if I was I would not tolerate some of the nonsensical and illiberal criticism we see coming from Iains, bobad and Nigel Parsons.

And this will be deleted. But I've got it off my chest anyway.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 May 19 - 05:12 PM

No blame, just narrative.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 May 19 - 05:00 PM

Don't blame it on Australia.
Until last year a large amount of 'scrap metal' was going from UK to China, giving them the opportunity to recycle it and re-sell it to UK & America. Some details : Here


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 May 19 - 04:50 PM

And the steel industry has gone to the wall because Australia has devastated its own environment (thereby totally avoiding the financial crisis that the rest of us suffered) in order to supply unlimited iron ore to China. China then uses cheap labour to flood the world with cheap steel. And we can't do anything because China makes most of our stuff. That's the way the world is going.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 May 19 - 04:20 PM

From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 25 May 19 - 02:00 PM
"You may believe that Ireland is a 'special case'. 'Heads up', it isn't!"
Nothing to do with Northern Ireland Nige - you've opened the door to fascism by supporting mob-rule
I hope you'll forgive yourself - I doubt if anybody else will if the European fascists form the coalition they are aiming to
Jim Carroll

My comment was related to your posting what you believe to be news about the EU polling results:
"How can you possibly know how well the Greens have done (or seem to have done) in the European elections? "
Sorry - should have said "in Ireland" - they are assessing the results now

Ireland are under the same restrictions as the rest of the EU about publishing results/polls until 10pm Sunday.

From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 25 May 19 - 02:53 PM

"I'm getting pissed off with the ability of remainers to get this discussion altered to look as if they have the only valid arguments."
Are you really suggesting te Mods are remainers Nige

No, Jimmy I'm suggesting that the mods are following guidance from remainers who are pushing their own agenda, and are contacting moderators to get this discussion altered.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 May 19 - 02:53 PM

"I'm getting pissed off with the ability of remainers to get this discussion altered to look as if they have the only valid arguments."
Are you really suggesting te Mods are remainers Nige
You disappoint me - you're as bad as the rest of them
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 May 19 - 02:02 PM

And I've just taken a copy of the last four postings in case someone thinks it shows the Remain campaign in a bad light, and gets it deleted.
I'm getting pissed off with the ability of remainers to get this discussion altered to look as if they have the only valid arguments.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 May 19 - 02:00 PM

"You may believe that Ireland is a 'special case'. 'Heads up', it isn't!"
Nothing to do with Northern Ireland Nige - you've opened the door to fascism by supporting mob-rule
I hope you'll forgive yourself - I doubt if anybody else will if the European fascists form the coalition they are aiming to
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 May 19 - 01:55 PM

What are you people thinking Nigel !!!
I'm thinking that even the population of Northern Ireland should be bound by the same restrictions as the rest of Europe. (not just UK)
You may believe that Ireland is a 'special case'. 'Heads up', it isn't!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 May 19 - 10:33 AM

"How can you possibly know how well the Greens have done (or seem to have done) in the European elections? "
Sorry - should have said "in Ireland" - they are assessing the results now
We had two/three (depending where you live) elections happening here yesterday - local council, E.U., and a referendum on divorce
The figures were an assessment of all of them
If letting the cat out of the bag in advance - fairl play as far as I'm concerned
The ruthlessness and dishonesty that has been part of the Eu farce outweighs any lapses in protocol that has given fascism a toe-hold in Europe
It is to the shame of people like you that you've stood by silently and allowed it to happen - we thought we'd seen the back of those bastards after so many gave their lives 70 odd years ago
What are you people thinking Nigel !!!
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 25 May 19 - 10:23 AM

So far The Green Party seems to have done the best in yesterday's both local and European elections
Jim Carroll


How can you possibly know how well the Greens have done (or seem to have done) in the European elections? There is supposed to be a moratorium on anyone giving exit polls, or similar, until all Europe have had the chance to vote.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 25 May 19 - 07:52 AM

So far The Green Party seems to have done the best in yesterday's both local and European elections
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 25 May 19 - 06:16 AM

As far as I remember the "explainations" you linked to said 'administrative error'. The article goes a level beyond that saying how did the administrative errors come about. Root cause analysis and all that.


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Mudcat time: 6 December 11:44 PM EST

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