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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

DMcG 16 Apr 19 - 05:51 AM
Bonnie Shaljean 16 Apr 19 - 05:50 AM
Nigel Parsons 16 Apr 19 - 05:44 AM
Jim Carroll 16 Apr 19 - 04:41 AM
Steve Shaw 16 Apr 19 - 04:28 AM
peteaberdeen 16 Apr 19 - 04:00 AM
Jim Carroll 16 Apr 19 - 03:40 AM
DMcG 16 Apr 19 - 03:07 AM
Bonnie Shaljean 15 Apr 19 - 08:19 PM
McGrath of Harlow 15 Apr 19 - 07:44 PM
Bonnie Shaljean 15 Apr 19 - 02:35 PM
DMcG 15 Apr 19 - 01:45 PM
McGrath of Harlow 15 Apr 19 - 01:18 PM
DMcG 15 Apr 19 - 12:13 PM
McGrath of Harlow 15 Apr 19 - 08:31 AM
Jim Carroll 15 Apr 19 - 06:37 AM
Jim Carroll 15 Apr 19 - 06:32 AM
Dave the Gnome 15 Apr 19 - 06:31 AM
Nigel Parsons 15 Apr 19 - 05:55 AM
Jim Carroll 15 Apr 19 - 05:31 AM
Nigel Parsons 15 Apr 19 - 05:02 AM
Steve Shaw 15 Apr 19 - 04:47 AM
Nigel Parsons 15 Apr 19 - 04:34 AM
DMcG 15 Apr 19 - 02:24 AM
Backwoodsman 15 Apr 19 - 02:05 AM
Stilly River Sage 15 Apr 19 - 01:26 AM
McGrath of Harlow 14 Apr 19 - 05:40 PM
The Sandman 14 Apr 19 - 12:42 PM
Jim Carroll 14 Apr 19 - 11:21 AM
David Carter (UK) 14 Apr 19 - 10:37 AM
peteaberdeen 14 Apr 19 - 09:28 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 07:10 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 07:08 AM
Jim Carroll 14 Apr 19 - 07:04 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 06:54 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 06:54 AM
Iains 14 Apr 19 - 06:51 AM
Jim Carroll 14 Apr 19 - 06:27 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 06:18 AM
Dave the Gnome 14 Apr 19 - 05:30 AM
Steve Shaw 14 Apr 19 - 05:19 AM
Jim Carroll 14 Apr 19 - 04:31 AM
Backwoodsman 14 Apr 19 - 04:16 AM
Bonnie Shaljean 14 Apr 19 - 03:45 AM
Jim Carroll 14 Apr 19 - 02:56 AM
McGrath of Harlow 13 Apr 19 - 06:55 PM
Steve Shaw 13 Apr 19 - 04:44 PM
McGrath of Harlow 13 Apr 19 - 03:04 PM
Iains 13 Apr 19 - 02:16 PM
Steve Shaw 13 Apr 19 - 01:16 PM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 05:51 AM

would it re-unite as a single country (Republic of Ireland) as part of the EU, or would the Republic become part of Northern Ireland, and thus part of the UK.

Given the history of the Republic, is that a serious question?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 05:50 AM

Ummm, no... the Republic isn't going to become part of the UK. It's an independent republic. If that really needs clarifying at official level, it can be done. Re-read Theresa May's address to Parliament below.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 05:44 AM

MGoH: Without Scotland there wouldn't be a United Kingdom anyway, Northern Ireland and Wales aren't kingdoms, unlike Scotland.
That is irrelevant. Scotland isn't a kingdom either (now). The countries are united under a single 'kingdom' which would continue even if the number of constituent parts was reduced. The clue is in the title "United Kingdom", otherwise it would be "United Kingdoms".

Bonnie Shaljean: Not sure I get your point. If the two Irelands reunite - which they can do if there's a mutual will for it - then the North is no longer part of the UK, but joins the Republic.
That is some assumption. There is still the question (which I've put to Jim a few times with no good response) that even if Ireland re-united (requiring agreement from residents of both halves), would it re-unite as a single country (Republic of Ireland) as part of the EU, or would the Republic become part of Northern Ireland, and thus part of the UK. The answer to this question would need to be clear before any referendums were held about re-unification.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 04:41 AM

"see you, jimmy - careful with the weary, old patronising stereotypes there. i'm in scotland -well, glasgow-"
You must excuse my somewhat wry humour - I got it from my Dad who was born in Glasgow (don't know if The Ridgeway is still there)
I know well that Scotland is fully capable of standing on its own two feet - probably more-so than Britain now, as things stand at present
I just haven't made up my mind about the SNP yet
You are aware of course that one of Ireland's greatest heroes (certainly our family's), James Connolly, was born in Edinburgh
I have to say that one of the few football matches I ever attended - a Celtic/Rangers derby, was the first time I'd ever seen men in cages

"You forgot to mention Scotland's greatest products"
And you forgot to mention Alec Douglas Home - but we all have our cross to bear   
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 04:28 AM

Ha ha, it didn't take you long to include the football team that Billy Connolly thought was called "Partick Nil!"

You forgot to mention Scotland's greatest products, namely Bill Shankly (aka God), Kenny Dalglish and Graham Souness...Andy Robertson...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 04:00 AM

see you, jimmy - careful with the weary, old patronising stereotypes there. i'm in scotland -well, glasgow- about once a fortnight and it doesn't need saying how many advantages scotland could gain from independence. (i'll take your mars bar and raise you oil, water, renenwables, partick thistle, central station, whisky and shitloads of money) once we get rid of paying for nuclear weaponry, crossrail, hs2 and many other english (usually london) financial projects we can do just fine. and - post-brexit- many english based firms will have advantages in relocating north.
once we have SNP led independence they will have given up their USP and become just another party and presumably will not do so well. as there is PR in the (vastly superior) scottish parliament, coalitions will be more probable and the more progressive nature of scottish politics should ensure better government than what they currently endure from westminster - what's not to like?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 03:40 AM

Irish Unity has been on the cards for some time now - the gap between the two groups has lessened considerably and there is now pressure from both sides for it
The major factors appear to have been the reassessment of the position of the Catholic Church brought about by the abuse disclosures in the Republic and the intransigence on issues such as pregnancy termination, same sex marriage and woman's rights in the North   
The DUP no longer has an overall majority and has to rely on co-operation of other parties
It seems to me that the end of the artificial division was inevitable, the economic effects of Brexit and the threat to the peace negotiation are just the icing on the long-awaited cake
I look forward to it happening
Probably the only good to have come out of this long-running farce, though it's a crying shame that it should ever been inflicted on the British people
I would love to see Scotland take their destiny in their own hands, but I'm not sure about a one-policy party with no long-term game plan - maybe the development of a Deep-Fried Mars Bar industry :-)   
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Apr 19 - 03:07 AM

Presumably we also remove the Scottish and Irish aspects of the flag, so we end up with just the English flag?

I went to a lecture on St George around 6 months ago, and it turns out the red cross on a white background is not St George's flag after all - early paintings show a completely different flag. In fact, according to the lecturer, the thing we call St George's flag was adopted in (I think) the 16th century from the city flag of Milan. St George is also patron saint of Milan, and someone confused the saint's flag with the city one. There is some irony in the very flag arising from confusion with Europe...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 08:19 PM

Not sure I get your point. If the two Irelands reunite - which they can do if there’s a mutual will for it - then the North is no longer part of the UK, but joins the Republic.

Scotland’s drive to be independent has been made very clear, as has their widespread resentment about being pulled out of the EU against their majority’s will, and Europe has indicated willingness to accept them into the fold if they break away.

This would then diminish the United Kingdom - i.e. “the Union” - to just England and Wales. What is the point of quibbling over semantics?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 07:44 PM

Without Scotland there wouldn't be a United Kingdom anyway, Northern Ireland and Wales aren't kingdoms, unlike Scotland. The Union of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland, maybe...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 02:35 PM

Although May has repeatedly talked the hard talk about allowing no-deal to remain on the table (and it is still the default scenario), according to those in her "inner circle", her bottom-line worry is the breakup of the union. And an Irish border poll is a real possibility, even a likelihood, if Britain leaves without an agreement in place. (I don't know why the DUP don't take that threat more seriously, considering the likely outcome under such circumstances. But they're good deniers, and totally blinkered.) You can bet Scotland wouldn't be far behind.

May's private illuminati (whoever they are - or were as of 4th April) have the following to say. Stay tuned.

- - -

"No-deal is better than a bad deal" was Theresa May's mantra for two years, making clear that Britain would walk away from negotiations with the EU if necessary. Her statement after the marathon cabinet meeting on Tuesday night, however, put paid to that. In a move which threatened to split her party - always something she had sought to avoid - Mrs May dramatically changed strategy and announced she would seek a deal with Labour support.

What changed her mind? I have been told by government insiders and those close to the prime minister that the answer is the UK union. One of her inner circle said: 'She's fixated on the union. No-deal clearly puts huge strain on the Irish border and the consequence is that a border poll becomes a real possibility. She thinks it would be high risk, and if it succeeded there would be a great impetus to Scotland. It could be that serious in terms of the breakup of the UK.'

Two other government sources told Sky News they believed the union was the decisive factor in Mrs May's thinking. One said: 'It was the union. The prospect of direct rule and some of the decisions that would need to be made in that situation are very unpalatable.' Another source added that the prospect of a border poll in Northern Ireland was 'very real' and something that other cabinet ministers were also concerned about...

In January, shortly before cancelling her second meaningful vote, Theresa May told the House of Commons: 'To those who think we should reject this deal in favour of no deal because we cannot get every assurance we want, I ask what a no-deal Brexit would do to strengthen the hand of those campaigning for Scottish independence or indeed of those demanding a border poll in Northern Ireland. Surely that is the real threat to our Union.'

To those familiar with her thinking, the impression is that the prime minister has become increasingly swayed by this argument.


4th April 2019
https://news.sky.com/story/why-did-theresa-may-ditch-a-no-deal-brexit-11683841


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 01:45 PM

That is true, McGrath. But as the EU said they are - in principle - prepared to have Scotland as a member after an independence vote, we may have two land borders with the EU, not one. And all the issues of phytosanitory checks etc would apply.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 01:18 PM

The difference would be the SNP wouldn't have the same objections that the DUP has about that backstop being a threat to the Union. They aren't Unionists.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 12:13 PM

Similarly, as it was a single referendum, there is no point in saying "Scotland voted with a large majority to remain".

That depends entirely on what question you are asking. If you are considering the possibility of a Scottish referendum on independence, it is highly relevant.

Few people seem to be considering that if they vote for independence we might be into Irish Border Question: The Sequel.   Feel free to resolutely avoid thinking about such questions if you wish.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 08:31 AM

The terms used offensively for members of minorities subject to some kind of unfair treatment move around all the time. Not just minorities either - being in the majority has rarely saved women from this kind of thing.

"Black" currently is inoffensive, "Coloured" is not. One time it was the other way round. "Queer" has been very much an insult, now it's used positively.

The thing is racists etc can be relied on to use just about any expression in an insulting way, and sooner or later that tarnishes the word. And set against that there is a tradition of taking a word that has been used as an insult and using it with pride.

Get rid of the bigotry and words just become words. But that's quite an ask.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 06:37 AM

I SUGGEST YOU READ THIS
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 06:32 AM

"I believe that the use of 'Black' as a descriptor for a person is now considered racist,"
Of course it isn't - black people refer to themselves as such - it has a relevance here as one of yours makes a point of targeting black MPs
I have little doubt that Mr Lammey has undergone the same treatment as are many in today's Brave New Britain - it most certainly has relevance to Lord Snooty's new-found friends
You are now rather crudely avoiding the issue Nigel - who's to blame you ?
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 06:31 AM

Using the term "black" to describe someone's ethnic background is neither racist not offensive. Calling someone a bog trotter is both.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 05:55 AM

From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 05:31 AM
Out of the closet time for the Brexiteers, it appears
Black Labour MP, David Lammey has declared the extremist Brexiteers to the Nazis,


I believe that the use of 'Black' as a descriptor for a person is now considered racist, should one who complains about pejorative terms being used about the Irish be using such descriptions?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 05:31 AM

Out of the closet time for the Brexiteers, it appears
Black Labour MP, David Lammey has declared the extremist Brexiteers to the Nazis, pointing out that Rees Mogg,s website now carries a video by the German Neo Nazi Party AfD, on his website   
HIS PAST IS CATCHING UP WITH HIM, IT APPEARS
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 05:02 AM

But I haven't said that, so I'm unsure who you're calling a scoundrel.
But if "labour constituencies" voted leave then if they contain a majority of Labour voters then the Labour voters would have had a convincing effect on the referendum (locally) so it is only if a suitable number of labour voters voted Leave that the constituency would show an overall leave vote. But, for the purpose of this vote, constituencies are an irrelevancy.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 04:47 AM

Well I suppose that the breakdown by party would be helpful to party leaderships in informing them of the general sentiment among their supporters. The reason I raised it was in order to counter the oft-made claim that most Labour-held seats ("in Labour's working class northern heartlands," etc) voted leave. Statistically correct, but if you say it, whilst neglecting to say that most Labour voters in those constituencies voted remain, you're being a bit of a scoundrel, aren't you?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 04:34 AM

The referendum was not conducted on constituency lines. Yet brexiteers love to analyse it thus. That's because they see the stats as "confirming" that the result was clear cut. Well it wasn't. It was tight. And the stuff about "northern constituencies," etc, being leave is bullshittery. The fact is that a large majority of Labour voters voted remain everywhere, just about, and an even larger majority of Labour members voted remain.

I have no interest in analysing the vote on constituency lines. As Steve points out, that's not how the referendum was run.
Nor was it run on party lines, so comments about a large Labour majority for remain is also pointless.
Similarly, as it was a single referendum, there is no point in saying "Scotland voted with a large majority to remain".

If Steve wishes to ignore claims about how constituencies voted, then any other breakdown of the vote must be equally irrelevant.

The result of the referendum was approximately 52:48 in favour of leave.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 02:24 AM

Thanks for that, SRS. It is an interesting paper, though I have to say that when it uses terms like 'coconstition of Brexit geopolitics' I fear expressions may be being used in specialist senses I do not fully understand. Not the paper's fault, of course: it is aimed at other academics with that shared understanding I may lack. Also, that the paper is based on 15 interviews does call into question how representative a sample this is. With those caveats, there seemed to be a fair amount in it. One thing I found striking was how - oversimplifying greatly - the viewpoint of Leavers is often focused on the 'top level' concepts of things like 'sovereignty', 'national interest' and such like, whereas Remainers are often focused on how individuals are affected by all this. It is a crude simplification, of course, as both care about both, but that difference is, I think, present. The paper reflects this, and is largely about how the individuals interviewed deal with pressures at both levels.

Definitely worth a read.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 02:05 AM

If Switzerland can overturn a flawed referendum, I wonder why the UK does’tt seem capable of doing the same thing in regard to a referendum which was flawed completely, and on every level?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 15 Apr 19 - 01:26 AM

I decided to step it up and take a look at Google Scholar. This caught my eye because of the mudcat troll activity over the years that was particularly disparaging of some of the European immigrants, singling out Polish immigrants and communities. "Second, the paper argues that Polish nationals' spatial practices have been shaped by anti-immigrant discourse and sentiment surrounding the Brexit vote. In particular, local public spaces are viewed simultaneously as sites of potential conflict and sites of meaningful intercultural engagement and everyday citizenship." I've only read the abstract so far, this is a link so I can read it later and perhaps it will add something useful to this very long-winded discussion.

Rescaling belonging in “Brexit Britain”: Spatial identities and practices of Polish nationals in Scotland after the U.K. Referendum on European Union membership

Abstract
This paper discusses how the 2016 U.K. Referendum on European Union membership has shaped the spatial identities and practices of Polish nationals living in Scotland. On the basis of original qualitative data collected in Edinburgh after the referendum, we make two key arguments. First, the referendum was a catalyst for Polish nationals to rescale spatial identities and challenge normative definitions of nationalism and citizenship. We highlight the role of emotion as a key driver in this process, showing that multiscalar attachments to place and strategies for onward mobility, adaptation, and integration after Brexit are constructed through emotionality. Second, the paper argues that Polish nationals' spatial practices have been shaped by anti-immigrant discourse and sentiment surrounding the Brexit vote. In particular, local public spaces are viewed simultaneously as sites of potential conflict and sites of meaningful intercultural engagement and everyday citizenship. A broader aim of the paper is to advance feminist theory and praxis in population geography through a focus on nonhierarchical and relational scales of experience to better understand migrant identities and practices in a changing Europe.


The full text is at the link.

This one also follows that train of thought: “Where are we going to go now?” European Union migrants' experiences of hostility, anxiety, and (non?)belonging during Brexit


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 05:40 PM

Here is a EU link explaining how the voting sytems used in the EU elections work

It makes interesting reading, because they are very different to what we have in other elections.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: The Sandman
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 12:42 PM

with a new party formed that will effectively split the vote between ukip and the farage party


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 11:21 AM

""Vicious bigot" is a matter of opinion, mine is that Farage fits that description, "
Sums him up perfectly - it takes a true 'patriot' to insult the British people by claiming that this scum-bucket represents anybody but the lower depths of society - anybody making such a claim must really despise the British people
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 10:37 AM

Corbyn is not a member of the communist party. That is a verifiable fact. "Vicious bigot" is a matter of opinion, mine is that Farage fits that description, he certainly fits it more closely than he does your "mightily esteemed". He represents no majority, and he never did.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 09:28 AM

the division has always been an argument in the tory party between a minority of far right tories and the slight more sensible majority. they dragged the rest of the country into their squabble and because they were not able to deal with the nicotine-stained man frog and his deluded followers - well, we are where we are. sadly - labour also have shirked their responsibility to stand up on a clear principled platform. they can't be seen to accommodate policies that will harm the country and encourage racism and division or they will deserve the same fate as the tories


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 07:10 AM

It wasn't a different point, Jim. I was addressing directly the caveat in your post which said "...given the right circumstances and responsible approach..."


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 07:08 AM

The United Kingdom was treated as a single constituency for the purpose of the referendum. Lord Ashcroft (see Kevin's 3.04pm post from yesterday) analysed the voting based on the way people had voted in the 2015 general election. Any other way of interpreting the data is likely to be tendentious and potentially misleading. Talk of "leave constituencies" and "remain constituencies" is one such way of trying to hoodwink people into thinking that leave achieved a resounding victory. They didn't. It was tight. It's been said, for example, that there were many 'leave constituencies" in the Labour heartlands in the north. That is misleading because in most or all of those constituencies a majority of Labour voters voted remain in the referendum. Lies, damn lies and statistics.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 07:04 AM

"Do you honestly think, though, that a responsible approach to the brexit referendum was even remotely possible, given the dishonest motivation for calling it in the first place?"
A different point altogether Steve
No, I see no necessity in leaving Europe whatever, and I see no necessity for referenda being called for without there being a clear need for one
Self-interest politicians and vicious bigots like Farage were allowed to make this an issue - it never arose from pressure from the people - they were never consulted beforehand, just as they are not being consulted now that result the required by those who hold the reins of State has been reached
Referendums should ve a way to allow the people to express their views on an issue they have raised and the process needs to be a matter in which the voters have all the available information at their disposal before they vote
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 06:54 AM

That was in response to Jim alone.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 06:54 AM

Do you honestly think, though, that a responsible approach to the brexit referendum was even remotely possible, given the dishonest motivation for calling it in the first place? There was certainly very little that was "responsible" about either campaign, and that was highly predictable. On June 23 2016 an ignorant electorate - ignorant through accepting tissues of lies from both sides, ignorant of the gravity of the choice they were confronted with, ignorant of the implications for the long-term future of the country, ignorant of the potential for the trashing of the Good Friday Agreement, ignorant through often dwelling on their own prejudices and self-interest instead of seeing the bigger picture - made the biggest decision facing the country for decades. A decision we should have expected our body of politicians to make in light of all the information they are paid to collect and understand that the rest of us can't be expected to get our heads around to anything like the same extent. 650 professional people with a host of advisers behind them. Yes we know what a pile of clowns there are embedded among that lot, but we can't do any better. So we did something far worse. By the way, had MPs had a free choice as to whether we should stay or leave, around 500 of them would have said stay, which now only fools and a few unreconstructed members of the Tory hard right still think would have been the wrong choice.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 06:51 AM

The referendum was not conducted on constituency lines. Yet brexiteers love to analyse it thus

That is beause there is no other mechanism of analysis available to allow a comparison across party lines.

This I carefully explained in yet another deleted post but if you wish to continue your puerile behaviour go ahead!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 06:27 AM

"Well I can't think of an issue less suited to having a referendum about than membership of the EU."
I can't think of single issue unsuited for referendum, given the right circumstances and responsible approach
I can think of many which I wouldn't allow most politicians anywhere near if it were left to me
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 06:18 AM

I agree, but I didn't mention it as I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance that she'll do it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 05:30 AM

The only sensible way out of this mess is to scrap the whole idea. This government will not do that of course as it will finish them. While that may seem a good thing remember that the alternative of a Tory party run by the Brexitaliban is even worse!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 05:19 AM

Well I can't think of an issue less suited to having a referendum about than membership of the EU. The biggest lie of all that was sold to us among a whole plethora of lies was that it was somehow as simple as putting a cross in one of two boxes on a piece of paper and that that was "democracy." In the last three years we've seen our national money draining away, every economist pointing to the dire threat of a severe shrinkage of our economy, the chances of amazing trade deals evaporating completely and a potential border crisis that initially seemed to even elude most of our politicians. Ironically, the whole issue has been handled so ineptly that a referendum now seems to be the only way out of the mess, and only then if remain were to prevail. I never thought I'd hear meself saying that.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 04:31 AM

"But with double underlining of the important three words - ‘when used responsibly’!"
That goes without saying Baccy, but when you consider of the farce that Parliamentary democracy has become (and has always been, to a lesser degree) "anywhere has to be better than here" as the man said as he drove into Birmingham !
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 04:16 AM

But with double underlining of the important three words - ‘when used responsibly’!

The Brexit referendum was probably the least responsibly-run referendum ever, anywhere. And we will be paying for it for a very long time to come, or rather, our kids will.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 03:45 AM

What. Jim. Said.
In red boldface caps, and underline it eight times.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Apr 19 - 02:56 AM

"The referendum was not conducted on constituency lines. "
The problem is that the hate based populism that gave us Brexit and Trump is being presented as 'Democracy' by the right wing politicians and the Bum-wipe Press
I have to say, before I experienced them close up, I was unaware of how effective referenda and proportional representation could be when used responsibly - they really are a check on excesses
The tactical voting available to you at election time really makes you think before you put your cross on the ballot paper
Ireland has improved beyond imagination over the last decade or so thanks to two referenda - others on divorce and a woman's place in society on their way (while Little Britain beyond Ireland still lumbers in the Primeval swamps North-East of here)
Bring on the next one
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 13 Apr 19 - 06:55 PM

The rage of Brexiteers about the suggestion of a referendum reflects their awareness that they are probably in a minority now.

Of course if such a vote was a confirmatory one, on a deal - either May's one or with a tacked-on customs union with remain as the alternative it's hard to know what the hardine Brexiteers would prefer. There's been quite a lot of talk about "this deal is worse than staying in the EU" - maybe they mean it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Apr 19 - 04:44 PM

The referendum was not conducted on constituency lines. Yet brexiteers love to analyse it thus. That's because they see the stats as "confirming" that the result was clear cut. Well it wasn't. It was tight. And the stuff about "northern constituencies," etc, being leave is bullshittery. The fact is that a large majority of Labour voters voted remain everywhere, just about, and an even larger majority of Labour members voted remain. Take heed, Jezza. You're supposed to be standing up for better democracy within the party. A recent YouGov poll revealed that large numbers of Labour leave voters have changed their minds. In a new referendum, it's a good bet that Labour voters and new young voters replacing the recently-dead would reverse the result. Be very afraid, brexiteers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 13 Apr 19 - 03:04 PM

The fact that a Labour held seat voted Leave does not imply that most Labour voters in that constituency voted Leave in the referendum. That Leave vote was made of people who had voted for the whole range of parties.

There have been a number of researchers who have found that it appears that most people who had voted Labour in 2015 voted to Remain in the referendum, whereas most Tory voters went for Leave.
Here is a site that includes a breakdown of how the refrendum vote was made up.

For 2015 Labour voters it's given as 63% Remain, for Tories it's only 42%. And many of those Remain voters were probably at least as much influenced by a wish to hit out at the Cameron government as by the actual issue of Brexit.   When it came to the 2017 election they voted Labour again.

That's not to deny that there were many Labour voters who went for Remain - but the assumption that all the Labour leave-voting constituencies are full of people ready to turn there back on the hope of a Labour government at any sign of readiness to allow people to have a second chance to decide their future is very questionable.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 13 Apr 19 - 02:16 PM

The overwhelming majority of Labour voters, and an even bigger majority of party members, voted remain.

There is no data to support the above assertion because party affiliation was not recorded in the referendum and MEP constituencies do not coincide with Parliamentary ones.

70% of Conservative constituencies and 60% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave in the EU referendum.
Conclusion

These figures are roughly correct, although we don’t know for sure how many parliamentary seats voted – all we have are estimates.

    "7 out of 10 Conservative MPs... represent constituencies that voted to leave, as did mine. 6 out of 10 of Labour represent Leave constituencies."

    Claire Perry MP, 12 July 2018


The results of the EU referendum weren’t counted by parliamentary constituency, so we don’t know for sure how constituencies voted. A small number of councils did release official breakdowns by parliamentary seat, and data on some other areas was obtained by the BBC via Freedom of Information requests.

The best figures we have for other constituencies comes from Professor Chris Hanretty, a political scientist at Royal Holloway University, who combined official results and the BBC data with statistical methods in order to estimate the proportion of Leave and Remain voters in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales.

These estimates show that while the national result of the referendum was relatively close, with 52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain, a much larger majority of parliamentary seats voted to Leave – with 64% of seats in Great Britain voting Leave. (This is likely due to the uneven distribution of Remain voters, who tended to cluster in large cities, while Leave voters were more evenly spread.)

According to these estimates, around 75% of constituencies that were won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave, while around 61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave. All seats won by the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain.Bar chart showing the numbers of seats held by British parties that voted Leave or Remain

These estimates are most likely the ones being referred to when politicians discuss how constituencies voted. But other than the seats where the actual result is known for sure (only 20% of constituencies) they are just estimates.

As Professor Hanretty wrote when he released his work, “I’d like you to say ‘probably’ before you talk about how a constituency voted, unless I’ve flagged up a result as being known exactly.” The margin of error for the estimates is not known, due to the nature of the statistical methods used.

This means that for constituencies in which the exact results are unknown, and which the estimates suggest the result of the referendum vote was close, we can’t be certain about saying whether the constituency voted Leave or Remain.

Looking just at seats held by the Conservatives and Labour, if we highlight seats where the estimated referendum vote was within the 47% to 53% range and the actual result isn’t known, we can see that there are a large number of seats where the referendum vote is still uncertain.Scatter plot showing estimated Leave and Remain votes in Conservative and Labour parliamentary constituenciesWhen you factor in this uncertainty, the figures for how each party’s seats voted changes a bit. By this count, 62% of Conservative seats voted Leave, with 21% uncertain and 17% Remain. Labour’s seats, meanwhile, voted 56% Leave, 8% uncertain, and 36% Remain.


Of course this will not fit with the shouties agenda so no doubt it will be censored by deletion like most of my other recent posts.

Is this what mudcat now represents- a bastion of the extreme left?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Apr 19 - 01:16 PM

It's vital that Labour doesn't become seen to be facilitating brexit. The overwhelming majority of Labour voters, and an even bigger majority of party members, voted remain. Talking to the Tories is one thing (sheesh). But any agreement reached must be predicated on ratification by a public vote. And I'm saying that as a long-time opponent of referendums...


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