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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Dave the Gnome 09 Jul 19 - 11:32 AM
Backwoodsman 09 Jul 19 - 11:38 AM
Iains 09 Jul 19 - 12:00 PM
DMcG 09 Jul 19 - 01:37 PM
David Carter (UK) 09 Jul 19 - 01:50 PM
peteaberdeen 09 Jul 19 - 01:55 PM
Iains 09 Jul 19 - 01:58 PM
DMcG 09 Jul 19 - 02:18 PM
Jim Carroll 09 Jul 19 - 02:56 PM
Iains 09 Jul 19 - 04:19 PM
Nigel Parsons 09 Jul 19 - 07:31 PM
Raggytash 09 Jul 19 - 07:36 PM
Raggytash 09 Jul 19 - 07:54 PM
Nigel Parsons 09 Jul 19 - 08:15 PM
Nigel Parsons 09 Jul 19 - 08:18 PM
Steve Shaw 09 Jul 19 - 08:56 PM
DMcG 10 Jul 19 - 02:20 AM
Jim Carroll 10 Jul 19 - 02:39 AM
Iains 10 Jul 19 - 03:02 AM
Iains 10 Jul 19 - 03:36 AM
Raggytash 10 Jul 19 - 11:42 AM
Steve Shaw 10 Jul 19 - 11:48 AM
Monique 10 Jul 19 - 12:37 PM
Raggytash 10 Jul 19 - 12:49 PM
Nigel Parsons 10 Jul 19 - 12:50 PM
Stanron 10 Jul 19 - 12:55 PM
Steve Shaw 10 Jul 19 - 01:05 PM
Stanron 10 Jul 19 - 01:43 PM
DMcG 10 Jul 19 - 02:11 PM
DMcG 10 Jul 19 - 02:12 PM
David Carter (UK) 10 Jul 19 - 02:18 PM
Iains 10 Jul 19 - 02:20 PM
Raggytash 10 Jul 19 - 02:49 PM
Dave the Gnome 10 Jul 19 - 03:39 PM
Stanron 10 Jul 19 - 03:57 PM
DMcG 10 Jul 19 - 04:03 PM
Backwoodsman 10 Jul 19 - 04:28 PM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 02:41 AM
Iains 11 Jul 19 - 05:48 AM
Nigel Parsons 11 Jul 19 - 06:22 AM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 09:20 AM
Iains 11 Jul 19 - 11:18 AM
Iains 11 Jul 19 - 11:57 AM
Nigel Parsons 11 Jul 19 - 12:00 PM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 12:32 PM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 12:35 PM
Iains 11 Jul 19 - 01:00 PM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 01:10 PM
DMcG 11 Jul 19 - 01:22 PM
Dave the Gnome 11 Jul 19 - 01:39 PM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 11:32 AM

We can stop anyone entering the UK if there is just cause BWM. But, yes, aside from that, anyone wishing to remain here has to be seen to be self supporting.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 11:38 AM

”We have control over immigration from outside the EU, but not from within, which is the comment I made.”

And you’re just making this stuff up, presumably to try to cover up your embarrassment at having been so dopey as to fall for the BrexShit-Bullshit. You really do need to widen your reading, and stop being taken in by the nonsense spouted by the fascist Farage and his cohorts.

From the ONS report, ‘Migration Statistics Quarterly Report May 2019’ - I tried to link to it but the link didn’t work...

”2. Main points

Long-term international net migration, immigration and emigration figures have remained broadly stable since the end of 2016.

Long-term international net migration data show that migrants continued to add to the UK population as an estimated 258,000 more people moved to the UK with an intention to stay 12 months or more than left in the year ending December 2018. Over the year, 602,000 people moved to the UK (immigration) and 343,000 people left the UK (emigration).

EU long-term immigration has fallen since 2016 and is at its lowest since 2013. Non-EU long-term immigration has gradually increased over the last five years to similar levels seen in 2011.

Since 2016, overall long-term immigration to the UK for work has continued to decrease and looking at all available data sources, this has mainly been due to the fall in EU immigration to the UK for work. For non-EU citizens, since 2015, work-related immigration to the UK has remained broadly stable, however, the number of skilled work visas issued has been increasing.

As seen in all available sources, non-EU student immigration has recently risen, after remaining broadly stable between 2013 and 2017. Most non-EU citizens arriving in the UK to study went to university and the number of sponsored applications for universities in the year ending March 2019 was the highest level on record.

The UK granted asylum, alternative forms of leave, or resettlement to 17,304 people in the year ending March 2019, an increase on the previous year. Grants of protection were at their highest number since 2003.”


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 12:00 PM

A new poll by ComRes for the Telegraph today shows that in the event Boris is elected leader of the Conservative Party, the party leads Labour by seven points and would win a 40 seat majority in an election. Under Hunt, the two parties are projected to both be tied on 26% with Labour ahead on seats and the Brexit Party winning 23. Under Boris, the Brexit Party win 0…

We shall see! Recent polls have been flummoxed by the fickle finger of fate, when tested in the ballot box.

Meanwhile back to Labour and the travails of compo corbyn the cabbage patch king: Brought from the pen of truth GUIDO FAWKES
Lifelong Eurosceptic Jeremy Corbyn has finally relented to immense pressure within his party to throw his support fully behind a second referendum and Remaining in the EU. The writing was on the wall for his personal Brexit resistance after Len McCluskey folded last night. One final roll of the dice to try to save his own skin…

Labour say that the Shadow Cabinet has finally agreed on a “settled Brexit position” to:

    “challenge whoever emerges as the leader of the Conservative Party to have the confidence to put their deal to the people in a referendum, with remain on the ballot, in which Labour would campaign for remain.”

Whether this leads to any material change in Corbyn’s day-to-day approach to Brexit remains to be seen…

What they still haven’t clarified is what their policy would be if they actually ended up in Government trying to negotiate Brexit themselves. The Unions’ position is that Labour’s stance in that case would depend on the deal negotiated. Would be strange for them to negotiate a deal and then immediately campaign against it…

They are still the in out hokey cokey party,but increasingly driven by their union paymasters and thus have abandoned vast swathes of their electorate. I suspect come election time there will be carnage.
You could not make it up.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 01:37 PM

. It would probably be worth leasing some of the licences to (say) Spain for a while anyway while the UK fishing fleet gears up

So what you are saying is the UK fishing sector should invest in building up the fleet while it has no income, and will have no guarantee of success in winning a licence in future, and when the time comes to bid, have higher overheads to do with repaying for this new fleet whereas the Spanish (for example) have already covered a substantial part of those debts.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 01:50 PM

All student immigration is good. It is a measure of the strength of the UK higher education sector.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 01:55 PM

re that 'guido fawkes' bloke. i saw him on question time and was surprised to see how young he is. and dim. and err...driven.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 01:58 PM

Must be time to point out again how constituencies voted in the brexit referendum. (and before the usual suspects start their nonsense, the figures below are reasonably accurate assessments. The exact figures are largely irrelevant, the percentages speak for themselves)

In the 2016 EU referendum, 148 Labour constituencies voted to leave, 84 to remain. 247 Conservative constituencies voted to leave, 80 to remain. Best estimates are that 249 Conservative constituencies probably voted to leave, and 81 to remain (based on the 2015 general election seat distribution). This clearly shows that had MPs really represented their constituents Brexit would have occurred long,long ago.

It behoves MPs of both major parties to pay attention to these figures should an election be in the offing. Constituency parties will want very clear statements from their prospective MPs concerning their Brexit position before being selected. Imposing/inflicting candidates just ain't gonna work this next time around for either side of the divide.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 02:18 PM

It is possible that come the next election either a Brexit deal has been agreed or we have left with no deal. In which case cross examining potential candidates on what they wanted to do abut leaving, while ignoring all the other issue would be utterly pointless.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 02:56 PM

"and err...driven."
So he should be with all those convictions for drunk driving
Should be locked away and the key thrown away if he ever gets behind a wheel again - bloody piss artist
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 04:19 PM

Should be locked away and the key thrown away if he ever gets behind a wheel again - bloody piss artist

But he is still followed by very many MPs and frequently is first with the news politically. When are you going to tire of shooting the messenger rather than the message?

As I recall Winston Churchill was very near a raging alcoholic by the standards of today. Did it impact his speeches or prodigious literary output?
Churchill is held in high esteem for his accomplishments, not how many he could drink under the table.
Do you understand the difference yet?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 07:31 PM

So what you are saying is the UK fishing sector should invest in building up the fleet while it has no income, and will have no guarantee of success in winning a licence in future, and when the time comes to bid, have higher overheads to do with repaying for this new fleet whereas the Spanish (for example) have already covered a substantial part of those debts.

No, what I am saying, and what you are having problems understanding, is that once the UK has control over our fishing grounds, our fishing fleet will see that expansion is worthwhile because the UK can decide who has access to those fishing grounds. It is not a matter of who will "win a license". The UK , as a (once again) sovereign nation, can decide to issue fishing licences for the benefit of UK fishermen.

My previous comment made clear that, in the short term, it might be better to sell 'short term' leases to other countries, while the UK builds up its fishing fleet once more.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 07:36 PM

For crying out loud, he is the epitome of the gutter press, except he is not the press, he deals in 'sound bites'on a blog.

That is all he is, a blogger.

There is no depth, no analysis or any credence to his output.

You choose to quote him because he panders to your warped opinion of politics ......... no depth, no analysis and certainly no credence.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 07:54 PM

Nigel,

I live in what used to be a decent fishing town. The companies who had quotas sold them off to the highest bidder. That that bidder could local, English, British made not the slightest difference to them.

The small number of, mainly men, were laid off, not that they had contracts, they were 'sparehands' laid off after every trip not knowing if they would get on a ship next time it left port.

Your rose colour spectacles will not alter that situation one iota.

Despite some people still holding quotas there is not one trawler that has sailed from this port and hasn't been for 20 years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 08:15 PM

That (Raggytash) is the basis of the whole argument. Leavers believe that the UK, as a nation, is finished, and can never be a worthwhile, separate, sovereign, nation,
Brexiteers believe that the UK is capable of functioning outside of the control of the EU.

You have obviously already chosen your side of the argument in complete capitulation.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 08:18 PM

Leavers believe that the UK, as a nation, is finished,

Sorry, that should be "Remainers believe"


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jul 19 - 08:56 PM

Once again. Whether you're in the progressive south or in Labour's northern heartlands, the fact remains that there wasn't a single constituency anywhere in which Labour voters had a majority supporting leave.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:20 AM

No, what I am saying, and what you are having problems understanding, is that once the UK has control over our fishing grounds, our fishing fleet will see that expansion is worthwhile because the UK can decide who has access to those fishing grounds

As I say fairly often, I like to make a statement, respond, then leave it, so I will not be continuing this subtopic beyond this post. But, I understand that perfectly well, Nigel. The points I raised were that whether you can see opportunities long term or not, such expansion costs money and that has to come from somewhere. Also, unlike many businesses that can grow 1 or 2 percent at a time, the nature of shipping and access to fishing areas make that very much more granular: you have say 3 ships and want to expand to 4: you have to cost-justify a 25% expansion, or not expand. The established traders do not have to build up additional resources and so can bid more for a given level of profit. Now, some of the biggest UK businesses may be able to justify the gamble of investing but then not winning the business. I don't think small ones can.

Then the second point is that while the UK (government) can decide who gets access, there is no reason to believe the UK fishermen will get any sort of preferential treatment: indeed it would not be hard to make the case that the focus should be income to the UK as a whole, not any one specific sector, and therefore it would be wrong to give them such preferential treatment. So any fishermen who voted leave on the grounds it would protect their industry may find it does not work out like that at a personal level.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:39 AM

"Did it impact his speeches or prodigious literary output?"
Witten by somebody else and not particularly well delivered
A man in the right place at the right time - no more
Churchill's one outstanding quality was that he opposed the rise of fascism while all his Tory colleagues were happy to look the other way
He was happy to turn out the troops against striking miners - too near home to ignore

Anybody who ignores the latest Trump Circus regarding the new Ambassador and his attacks on the British elected leadership and hasn't been alerted to the dangers of placing the fortunes of Brexit Britain in the hands of the U.S. has to be regarded a Quisling
If I were in any way a nationalist or even a patriot I would regard it a personal insult
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 03:02 AM

Once again. Whether you're in the progressive south or in Labour's northern heartlands, the fact remains that there wasn't a single constituency anywhere in which Labour voters had a majority supporting leave.

Sweeping statements backed by zero evidence is just distracting white noise. Is it whimsy again, or simply an inability to find and construct supporting links? Repeating lies does not make them true

Whereas my easily found and simply constructed link utterly rejects your false assertions


https://fullfact.org/online/referendum-results-by-constituency/


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 03:36 AM

"Did it impact his speeches or prodigious literary output?"
Witten by somebody else and not particularly well delivered


Yet he was awarded the Nobel prize for literature in 1953. I suspect the Nobel Committee know a little more about his standing than an exile that snipes at blighty nearly every opportunity. I am also absolutely certain he was not guilty of plagiarism so wrong again!

It is a matter of public record that .. When demand was high for his newspaper and magazine articles, Churchill employed a ghostwriter.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 11:42 AM

A report on the BBC website suggests that up to 40,000 jobs could be lost in Northern Ireland if a no-deal Brexit were to occur.

This information is based on analysis from Stormonts Department for the Economy. That is a government department, not anyone who our Brexiteers could describe as tree-hugging leftards or any other such offensive name.

Will any of our Brexiteers have the courage to respond ....... I doubt it.

Could someone please link to the webpage.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 11:48 AM

There was not a single constituency in which more Labour voters voted leave than remain. Perhaps you should read more carefully what was typed before hurling your insults around.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Monique
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 12:37 PM

Link to the BBC Site


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 12:49 PM

Thank you Monique


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 12:50 PM

There was not a single constituency in which more Labour voters voted leave than remain.
As Iains said, a sweeping statement with no referenced back-up.
As the referendum was a secret ballot, no-one knows how the vote was broken down, any polls are just that, and we saw around the referendum just how accurate polls may be (or not).


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 12:55 PM

Steve Shaw wrote: There was not a single constituency in which more Labour voters voted leave than remain. Perhaps you should read more carefully what was typed before hurling your insults around.
This is only true because more than 'one' constituency had more leave voters than remainers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 01:05 PM

Not more Labour leave voters than Labour remain voters. We appear to be suffering from a rash of illiteracy around here this afternoon. And we are talking about surveys after the event rather than polls before the event. Of course, no-one can force anyone to tell the truth, but I'd just point out that one individual here who is never on my side of the argument resorts to published polls all the time.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 01:43 PM

Is this all lies then?

https://fullfact.org/online/referendum-results-by-constituency/


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:11 PM

I wonder if our resident Brexit supporters are going to explain Trump's ability to force Sir Kim Darroch to resign illustrates our sovereignty.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:12 PM

… And, of course, how it demonstrates we will be able to assert our sovereignty when it comes to any US trade deal.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:18 PM

Stanron, that link gives no information about which way Labour voters voted in the referendum. That is simply not addressed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:20 PM

There was not a single constituency in which more Labour voters voted leave than remain. Perhaps you should read more carefully what was typed before hurling your insults around.
As the pantomime dame is wont t osay: OH YES THERE IS !

As I frequently say: I believe in posting facts.
One example Birmingham

Birmingham is divided into ten parliamentary constituencies, each of which elects one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons.
EU Referendum Results 2016 by Constituency and Ward
    Edgbaston - Preet Gill (Labour)Voted leave
    Erdington - Jack Dromey (Labour)leave
    Hall Green - Mr Roger Godsiff (Labour)
    Hodge Hill - Liam Byrne (Labour)Leave
    Ladywood - Shabana Mahmood (Labour)
    Northfield - Richard Burden (Labour)leave
    Perry Barr - Mr Khalid Mahmood (Labour)leave
    Selly Oak - Steve McCabe (Labour)
    Sutton Coldfield - Mr Andrew Mitchell (Conservative)
    Yardley - Jess Phillips (Labour)

Time for a little reminder:
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 09 Oct 17 - 11:31 AM
I was being whimsical. Anyone normal here would have seen that. It’s what we do to politicians, Nigel. I find it devilishly amusing and I don’t expect anyone to think I’m telling the literal truth

Now if we wish to discuss insults;

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 07 Jul 19 - 02:34 PM

Come on, mods. You did it with Teribus and you did it with akenaton. This bloke is worse. Make the place sweeter and get rid of him. Surely you've seen enough. And Jim, no responding this time, right?

Noy even your gig and you presume to dictate! You really are insufferable at times.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 02:49 PM

Very nice Iains, but it does not tell us which members of the public voted to remain or to stay.

Furthermore it does not tell us which of those people who may or may not be labour voters voted to stay or remain.

May I suggest that you go back to Steve's original post and try (I know it may be difficult for you) to comprehend exactly what he was saying.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 03:39 PM

Just look at the oft quoted Survey on how the country voted. In case you have not got the sense to find it yourselves, here it is again. in case you cannot be arsed to even follow that, the key point is that 65% of Labour voters chose remain. Steve has it right. I don't know how to make it simpler apart from putting it in a Ladybird book. Or the Daily Mail. The majority of Labour voters everywhere chose remain.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 03:57 PM

OK I see what you are saying. What do you think of this?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters

from the same source.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 04:03 PM

Well, Stanron, I begin by noticing it is from September 2016.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 10 Jul 19 - 04:28 PM

”I don't know how to make it simpler apart from putting it in a Ladybird book. Or the Daily Mail. The majority of Labour voters everywhere chose remain.”

Put it on the side of a big red bus Dave, they’ll believe it then.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 02:41 AM

It makes sense, Stanron. 65% of Labour voters wanted to remain. If the party is not fulfilling their wishes it is little wonder that they will lose some members. Hopefully they have now addressed that issue.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 05:48 AM

Raggtash The figures are very clear, In Birmingham the Brexit vote was broken down into wards and constituencies enabling the breakdown to be studied very thoroughly. Not all councils followed suit so statistical methods had to be employed leading to slight inaccuracies as highlighted in my previous link
It should be obvious to anyone the votes are spread among constituencies.
The only time a gross figure is of any relevance is in a referendum where leave won! In the case of constituencies it is the majority vote within the constituency dictates outcomes as you very well know.
If it makes you feel better to argue what the different figures mean fair enough, but constituency majorities determine outcomes- nothing else. Distorting the outcomes by including those that did not vote may plump up your figures but we can all see the absurdity of such meaningless pastimes


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 06:22 AM

There is no way in which: Just look at the oft quoted Survey on how the country voted. In case you have not got the sense to find it yourselves, here it is again. in case you cannot be arsed to even follow that, the key point is that 65% of Labour voters chose remain. Steve has it right. I don't know how to make it simpler apart from putting it in a Ladybird book. Or the Daily Mail. The majority of Labour voters everywhere chose remain.
can be taken as confirmation of Steve's contention that: There was not a single constituency in which more Labour voters voted leave than remain.
The fact that the YouGov survey says that 65% of the national Labour vote was for remain does not mean that this was the case in every single constituency.
Maybe a Ladybird book is needed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 09:20 AM

Nigel. 65% of Labour voters wanted to remain. Discount Scotland and NI because they all wanted to remain. To have more Labour voters for leave in any English or Welsh constituency it means that in others the remain vote amongst Labour voters must have been massively over 65%. By no statistical or linguistic trick can that be true. You are clutching at straws.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 11:18 AM

But overall Leave had 17,410,742 votes which equates to 51.89% of those that voted. What colour shirt or dress they wore on the day is but a distraction, similarly with what way party members voted. It is of no significance that you claim 65% of labour voted to remain
(It is only a polled figure anyway) Remain still lost so the argument is of no significance, as carefully explained on the other thread.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 11:57 AM

Very nice Iains, but it does not tell us which members of the public voted to remain or to stay.

Well let us make an assumption that those that voted for a Labour MP in the 2015 election also maintained their majority vote one year later in the referendum.
I take as an example Birmingham Northfields These figures are actual.

Labour         Richard Burden         17,673         41% in 2015 election
Labour         Richard Burden         23,596         53.2% in 2017 election         Increase 11.6 %
June 2016 Referendum result by wards of Northfields constituency:

       WARD            Renain Leave   Total   Remain Leave

        Kings Norton        4,275        6,643        10,918        
       Longbridge        4,269        8,157        12,426        
        Northfield        5,005        8,151        13,156                
        Weoley         4,785        6,695        11,480        7        18,334   27,256

        59$ voted leave                        
       53% voted labour
That succinctly demonstrate a labour stronghold that voted leave


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 12:00 PM

Nigel. 65% of Labour voters wanted to remain. Discount Scotland and NI because they all wanted to remain. To have more Labour voters for leave in any English or Welsh constituency it means that in others the remain vote amongst Labour voters must have been massively over 65%. By no statistical or linguistic trick can that be true.
No statistical or linguistic trickery required.
To put it very simply (as that seems to be necessary), if the average Labour vote to remain was 65% (and that is just the result of a poll, not a verified figure) then 65% is an average when considering constituencies. To see one constituency drop below 50% would not seem unlikely. Nor would it be unlikely (in view of the total number of constituencies available) for several constituencies to have less than 50% of their Labour supporters voting remain.
Whether the extremes which make up that 65% average are as broad as I suggest they may be, there is nothing to confirm Steve Shaw's contention.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 12:32 PM

I don't claim 65%. A YouGov survey does.

Nigel. Fair argument. Unlikely as it seems, there is a slim possibility that some were less than 50%. As there is no proof either way I think we are down to opinions. So, who do I believe? One that is more likely to be correct, given by someone who is not prone to making things up. Or that of a nitpicking pedant with no proof then other way?

Hmmmm. Tough one...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 12:35 PM

BTW. Just noticed my tablet power is at 65% but I cannot offer any proof so I guess I could be imagining it.

Sheeesh.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 01:00 PM

How about s screen dump. Sheesh!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 01:10 PM

Show us how to post a screen dump on Mudcat. PIllock.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 01:22 PM

Since I said --
I wonder if our resident Brexit supporters are going to explain Trump's ability to force Sir Kim Darroch to resign illustrates our sovereignty.

--- Nigel, Stanron and Iains have all posted on other topics. I assume I was right in thinking they might not want to discuss what this shows and suggests about our sovereignty when dealing the the US.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 11 Jul 19 - 01:39 PM

Thanks for introducing a bit of sanity cousin McG.


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