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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

bobad 29 May 19 - 05:33 PM
Iains 29 May 19 - 05:20 PM
Dave the Gnome 29 May 19 - 05:08 PM
peteaberdeen 29 May 19 - 04:46 PM
Iains 29 May 19 - 04:36 PM
DMcG 29 May 19 - 12:10 PM
Stanron 29 May 19 - 11:03 AM
Dave the Gnome 29 May 19 - 10:41 AM
Stanron 29 May 19 - 09:11 AM
Stanron 29 May 19 - 08:39 AM
Backwoodsman 29 May 19 - 07:28 AM
DMcG 29 May 19 - 07:05 AM
Dave the Gnome 29 May 19 - 06:36 AM
Dave the Gnome 29 May 19 - 05:00 AM
DMcG 29 May 19 - 03:20 AM
Backwoodsman 29 May 19 - 02:35 AM
Backwoodsman 29 May 19 - 02:24 AM
Dave the Gnome 28 May 19 - 05:04 PM
Stanron 28 May 19 - 02:41 PM
Stanron 28 May 19 - 02:36 PM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 02:35 PM
Iains 28 May 19 - 02:04 PM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 01:46 PM
Iains 28 May 19 - 01:18 PM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 12:22 PM
Dave the Gnome 28 May 19 - 12:06 PM
Steve Shaw 28 May 19 - 11:50 AM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 11:38 AM
Jim Carroll 28 May 19 - 09:18 AM
Jim Carroll 28 May 19 - 09:15 AM
Steve Shaw 28 May 19 - 08:37 AM
Dave the Gnome 28 May 19 - 08:37 AM
Backwoodsman 28 May 19 - 08:32 AM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 07:54 AM
Backwoodsman 28 May 19 - 07:49 AM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 07:27 AM
Iains 28 May 19 - 06:56 AM
Dave the Gnome 28 May 19 - 06:44 AM
Iains 28 May 19 - 04:40 AM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 04:01 AM
Iains 28 May 19 - 03:59 AM
DMcG 28 May 19 - 02:46 AM
Backwoodsman 27 May 19 - 02:33 PM
Iains 27 May 19 - 01:23 PM
Dave the Gnome 27 May 19 - 01:14 PM
DMcG 27 May 19 - 12:07 PM
Steve Shaw 27 May 19 - 11:48 AM
peteaberdeen 27 May 19 - 11:05 AM
Raggytash 27 May 19 - 10:16 AM
Iains 27 May 19 - 09:27 AM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: bobad
Date: 29 May 19 - 05:33 PM

The only other political party to ever face a formal investigation by the EHRC is the BNP.

Thus nicely exemplifying the The Horseshoe Theory


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 29 May 19 - 05:20 PM

Kind of hard to ridicule the Equality and Human Rights Commission announcing the launch of a full statutory investigation into the Labour party.

and while Labour is expelling people for breaking rules:
Fresh from yesterday’s conveniently timed explusion of Alastair Campbell from the Labour Party, today it emerged that famously loyal Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn was a star speaker at a 1998 rally for the Communist Party of Britain. Corbyn’s name literally appears on the Communist Party recruitment form, the rally will have helped to drum up cash for the party’s coffers, breaking a swathe of Labour Party rules.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 May 19 - 05:08 PM

I wondered how long it would take for Labour antisemitism to rear its head. You would have thought the media barons, Tory dirty tricks brigade and spin doctors would have realised that you can only flog a dead horse so far.

The economy is broke. Look, Labour antsemitism!

Brexit negotiations are a shambles. Look, Labour antsemitism!

The government is in disarray. Look, Labour antsemitism!

I wish they would play another record.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 29 May 19 - 04:46 PM

whatever... boris johnson is a total arsehole. surely it's obvious to anyone with half a brain


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 29 May 19 - 04:36 PM

In view of the attempted prosecution of Boris I bring to your attention:
Wheeler v Labour Prime Minister (2008) the Divisional Court held that manifesto promises were NOT justiciable

" "Even if we had accepted that the relevant ministerial statements had the effect of a promise ... such a promise would not in our view give rise to a legitimate expectation enforceable in public law, such that the courts could intervene... The subject-matter, nature and context of a promise of this kind place it in the realm of politics, not of the courts."

I find it surprising that action against Boris was not taken at the time in 2016. This late in the day it is a deliberate attempt to marginalise a contestant, the same as the attempted smear of Farage by an electoral commission enquiry inmmediately before voting commenced.
Compare and contrast this with the delay until after the EU elections for the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) announcing the launch of a full statutory investigation to determine whether The Labour Party has unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish.

The only other political party to ever face a formal investigation by the EHRC is the BNP.

Politics is a dirty business!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 May 19 - 12:10 PM

Off topic, and purely my view which anyone is entitled to disagree with as they wish.

Most of you will remember a moment that entered folklore as 'Were you up for Portillo?', referring to the live broadcast of the election night results and the way it was clearly a huge shock to Michael Portillo when he lost his seat. It seems to me that it was an even bigger shock to him to find himself as the figurehead of derision and anger that encapsulated the rejection of the whole party. And that he was unusually self aware and thoughtful enough to take that away and reflect on whether was he actually as awful as the population seemed to think, and if so what could he do about it. I think he did genuinely accept that just being self confident was not enough and was determined to work to be 'a better person' (however that may be interpreted.)

In short, I have a lot more respect for him now than I had before. So, no, it is not 'a lefty thing' - it is a thinking person thing.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 29 May 19 - 11:03 AM

Of course you wouldn't, you're a lefty. Boris has a history of being elected. Twice as mayor of London. He would be the best bet to oppose Jeremy Corbyn in a General Election. However he has significant opposition in the Tory party and he also has a history of presenting himself with widely different options. Remember the two different articles he wrote on Brexit? He published the one in favour of leaving but he also had written one in favour of remain. Exactly why he made the choice he made is not known but he examined both cases and then decided. Maybe he has given himself an out in case he decides his future is brightest outside of Parliament.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 May 19 - 10:41 AM

Obviously it's a 'nobble' job

Why so, Stanron? The process began well before May even mentioned when she might resign.

As to TV programs. Portillo's are OK. I don't think I'd trust Johnson on a train... :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 29 May 19 - 09:11 AM

What I didn't mention in my last post is the possibility that Boris might have 'nobbled' himself. Whoever wins the leadership competition faces two possible outcomes.

1. We leave the EU and nearly 50% of the UK hates the result and the person who got the result.

or

2. We don't leave the EU and nearly 50% of the UK hates the result and the person who got the result.

If a court procedure prevents him from standing for the leadership he cannot be accused of chickening out. The downside is that the window of opportunity for leadership can be very narrow. If he misses this one he may never get another. Remember Michael Portillo? He blinked once and now makes TV programs.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 29 May 19 - 08:39 AM

Obviously it's a 'nobble' job. That part of the establishment who fear the results of Boris in power are using this to disqualify him from being leader. Out with the popcorn. Let's see how this develops.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 May 19 - 07:28 AM

Had to smile a few minutes ago when, in a piece about the court case, the presenter on BBC News said that, "Mr Johnson's spokesman wasn't available for comment".

Why a 'spokesman'? Bozo didn't have any problem shooting his big, blabbering gob off at every possible opportunity during the BrexShit Referendum campaign, why can't he speak for himself now?

Presumably it's the effect of the big yellow stripe down his back - the same one that make him soil his boxers and run for the hills on the morning after the Referendum, when the horrible truth dawned on him that his slogans, soundbites, and barefaced lies, had actually won it for the Leavers?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 May 19 - 07:05 AM

It will also be interesting if, should the court eventually rule he knowingly lied whether our defenders of the bus quote will agree it was misleading.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 May 19 - 06:36 AM

Johnson to face charges

Interesting to see how this one pans out for both the leave campaign and for his PM bid.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 29 May 19 - 05:00 AM

I think at this stage a renegotiation is out. A second referendum is now required with the options...

Do you vote for

A) Keeping things as they are in Europe and fixing our own broken government or

B) Leaving the EU with no deal thereby fucking the UK economy for decades to come, screwing the peace in Ireland and breaking up the Union.

I am happy with that wording :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 May 19 - 03:20 AM

Bercow plans to stay on as speaker until after October. What he will do if there is an extension beyond that is unclear, but based on the rationale for staying on, I expect he would stay on through a further extension as well if there was one.

Meanwhile the EU remains clear that the agreement will not be reopened, so anyone hoping to stand for PM based on renegotiating it is either just hoping the EU is bluffing or is asserting they will do something they know they can't.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 May 19 - 02:35 AM

Interesting article about Ol' Haddock-Face in the NYT yesterday, exposing him as 'the most dangerous man in Britain'.

Sounds right to me.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 May 19 - 02:24 AM

Magid Magid on BBC Breakfast right now.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 28 May 19 - 05:04 PM

Message from Magid Magid


A ray of hope in the darkness.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 28 May 19 - 02:41 PM

However prerogation is a differnt fish.

https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/judicial-law/prerogative-powers-remain-an-important.php


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 28 May 19 - 02:36 PM

I had to search what prorogation meant. For any others wondering try this

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occasions/prorogation/


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 02:35 PM

I will get told off if I stay on this, so this is the last post on the prorogatiin matter unless it becomes centre stage later.

In 1948 Parliament was preroged on 25 Octber until 26th Octiber. I.e. There was a 'reset' but apart from a nominal few hours both houses were sitting on the day before and the day after.

Most recently, prerogation was talked about as a mechanism to bring May's deal back again.

In both cases, the intention was to continue the work of the house with no significant gap in the times the houses were sitting.

In the idea being floated is that Parliament was preroged for the precise purpose of stopping it being able to work for some time around the 31 October. It would be days or weeks beforehand, because otherwise the house could attempt to introduce some form of action to amend the decision to leave without a deal. So it is completely opposite to the earlier examples: it is about thwarting the ability of Parliament to act, not enabling it.

Hence Bercow's informal comment that the idea is "for the birds."


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 May 19 - 02:04 PM

It was a procedure last invoked in 1948 to quell rebellious Lords. If the government were to pursue such an unlikely step I would surmise there is precious little the speaker could do to thwart it.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/01/the-prime-minister-could-prorogue-parliament-but-almost-certainly-wont.htm


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 01:46 PM

I am not sure that is what Bercow said on Marxh 18th. Here is the extract from Hansard:

Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South and Penarth) (Lab/Co-op)

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. Thank you for your statement today. The Government have gained an infamous historical reputation for trickery and abuse of Parliament during this whole process, and already rumours are going around that they might seek to use prorogation as a method of getting out of this. Can you confirm that that would not only provoke a greater constitutional crisis, but also result in us losing every single piece of legislation currently before both Houses, including many of the pieces of legislation needed to implement any Brexit?

Mr Speaker

If particular legislation was subject to carry-over, that would not apply, but in the expectation, let us say—or, to use a more neutral term, in the circumstance—that it was not subject to the carry-over procedure, manifestly and incontrovertibly it would fall. As for whether the Government are contemplating that, I have no way of knowing. No Minister has indicated that to me. I have no idea what is in their mind. It would be an unusual step, but look: I have been in this place a little over 20 years, and some quite unusual things have happened. I have no way of knowing whether this is being contemplated.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 May 19 - 01:18 PM

They are a one-policy party who will have no reason to continue to exist when (an if) Britain leaves Europe

Dream on squire! They are the largest party in the EU and will be around until we finally leave the EU and will fight the next General Election.

The idea that parliament is going to be evacuated for the centre stage of debate on Brexit is simply unimaginable...The idea the House won’t have its say is for the birds," he said.(Bercow)

Not quite what he said several months ago

"Labour MP Stephen Doughty asked Bercow in the Commons if a prorogation such as the one in 1948 could happen. The Speaker replied this would be “an unusual step”, but it was possible, although he had no idea whether the government had such plans" March 18th 2019
There would be a reluctance to do this as a Queen's speech would be required and there would thereby involve the monarchy. This is contrary to accepted procedures,where there is a presumption for parliamentary business to be carried out without involvement of the Queen.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 12:22 PM

From a Guardian live feed:

=====
John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, has warned
Conservative leadership candidates that they will not be able to force through a no deal Brexit without parliament’s approval.
Speaking in New York, he gave a clear sign that the speaker would make sure parliament has an opportunity to stop the UK leaving without a deal if MPs believe it should be halted.
"The idea that parliament is going to be evacuated for the centre stage of debate on Brexit is simply unimaginable...The idea the House won’t have its say is for the birds," he said.
He highlighted the fact that while leaving the EU without a deal is
the legal default: "There is a difference between a legal default position and what the interplay of different political forces in parliament will facilitate."
=====

So much for the idea by Rabb (or perhaps just his supporters) that Parliament could be prorogued can be quietly forgotten.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 28 May 19 - 12:06 PM

They can't change light bulbs. It takes one to book a man to do It and the rest to make money out of the transaction...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 May 19 - 11:50 AM

Maybe they still haven't got enough to change a light bulb.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 11:38 AM

So Cleverley and Malthouse have decided they could be PM now. Let me know when 5% of all Tory MPs are in the ring …

I am not sure how many backers you need to stand for PM, or whether there is a formal minimum, but is getting to be a bit silly now. If we aren't careful we will run out of time to get the choice whittled down to the two to ask party members to vote on.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 May 19 - 09:18 AM

Didn't quite finish
ONE OF THE MOST POSITIVE OF THE RESULTS
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 28 May 19 - 09:15 AM

I think it needs to be remembered that The Brexit Party is an ad-hoc set up made up of rejacted Ukip, which collapsed because they proved themselves unfit too be taken seriously, and fortified by the dregs of the Tory right - including some of
They are a one-policy party who will have no reason to continue to exist when (an if) Britain leaves Europe


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 28 May 19 - 08:37 AM

I see that Paul Staines has initiated an unofficial pro-Boris campaign. I wonder whether Bozza will dissociate himself from it...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 28 May 19 - 08:37 AM

Change hands...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 28 May 19 - 08:32 AM

LOL! Or ‘Dyslexic Fingers’ - my usual excuse for mis-spellings in pieces I’ve typed! ;-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 07:54 AM

Indeed it is. I would like to say we live and learn, but I don't guarantee either!

(When I was in primary school I used to do some conjuring in an 'end of school year' party we had. So this looks a clear case of 'we live and forget')


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 28 May 19 - 07:49 AM

DMcG - sincere apologies in advance for going into 'Nigel' mode, but it's sleight of hand.

Not my fault, it was The Pedant in Me wot made me do it! ;-) :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 07:27 AM

Can anyone explain to me why the brexit and UKIP combined vote of 34.9% versus 40.39% polled by the pro-remain parties is an indication that we should leave the EU?

Slight of hand, really. The Brexit Party is being reported as if it had no connection with UKIP, and so the 29 seats gained is as if it had none before. Not true of course: even some of the UKIP MEPs had switched to the Brexit Party before the elections, I believe.

No one ever treated New Labour as if it were a completely new party, for the very good reason it wasn't. The same is really true of UKIP/Brexit. Both were/are really "The Nigel Farage Election Vehicle Party".

Then of course the media really does want to report a story, so the percentage voting for the Brexit Party is a good one, and quite a sensible one to discuss, at that. But approach it more calmly and you are right, the fact that is that a clear 'remain' stance did gain more seats.

As I said before the election, this result will not bring clarity and both sides will spin things to look as if they won. Nothing unusual there.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 May 19 - 06:56 AM

I refer you to the events of June 2016, in case you have forgotten.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 28 May 19 - 06:44 AM

Can anyone explain to me why the brexit and UKIP combined vote of 34.9% versus 40.39% polled by the pro-remain parties is an indication that we should leave the EU?

I have not counted Labour and Tory as either BTW


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 May 19 - 04:40 AM

My apologies. Missed it I did.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 04:01 AM

You seem to have missed my post of 27 May 19 - 01:29 AM.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 28 May 19 - 03:59 AM

From: DMcG - PM
Date: 22 May 19 - 10:26 AM
Last time I understand Farage and UKIP got 22 seats. At the time, Brexit was really of interest only to nerds. COnsequently, I would be surprised if the Brexit Party did not get considerably more, but it would, for me, have to be 28 or above to be particularly noteworthy.


Howsabout 29?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 28 May 19 - 02:46 AM

In so far as Farage has another policy, it seems to be 'direct democracy', which is providing a mechanism to enable the general population to instruct the government what to do. It is really easy to present this as if it were a good idea, but it is incredibly dangerous. Democracy needs more than the ability to reflect the views of the populus - it needs then to be informed and to take account of the trade-offs. And it needs time to reflect to ensure all the trade offs have been properly considered. Lynch mobs were/are direct democracy. The attacks on the Jews in the Nazi era were direct democracy. Getting NICE to approve a cancer drug for treatment that costs £200,000 a course while not taking into account that is now twenty hip replacements per time that cannot now be afforded is an example of direct democracy.

But even worse than that: direct democracy is extremely vulnerable to advertising campaigns and social media manipulation: the cancer treatment example is an example of that in action - such a campaign is almost always behind the change of decision by NICE. And that means direct democracy is in many cases indirect dictatorship. The person who funds and runs the campaigns gets to pick the topics and with enough pressure often the result.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 27 May 19 - 02:33 PM

Interesting - and very disturbing - letters In The Guardian 19/5/19.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 19 - 01:23 PM

In the local council elections the Tories lost 1300 seats and Labour instead of picking up 500 seats managed to lose 500.
The Brexit Party formed several weeks ago won the highest number of seats of any EU party in the EU elections.

The Brexit party is to the Tories and Labour as The Black Death was to the Middle Ages!

No amount of pin dancing, or deleting of posts will alter that blindingly obvious truth.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 May 19 - 01:14 PM

As I pointed out earlier, there is all the talk of the massive gains by the Brexit party and no mention of the total wipeout of UKIP. If you offset one against the other there has been a modest gain for leave. Compared to the gains made by pro remain SNP, LibDem and Green, it is nothing.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 27 May 19 - 12:07 PM

Sorry about the blank post.

I was also going to say converting this result into a 'general election equivalent' is meaningless. As I said earlier, and echoing the comments on policies, if Farage became PM we can suppose on day 1 he writes to the EU and says that's it, goodbye, we are now on WTO rules. Fine. Now what does he do on day 2 for the next five years? No one has been told. I would hope even the most ardent Brexiteer who thinks at all would find that an unacceptable state of affairs.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 May 19 - 11:48 AM

Well it wasn't a general election, the turnout was little more than half of a typical general election turnout, Brexit is not a political party that has ever had a general election manifesto and, once brexit has been settled one way or another, the party will lose its raison d'être. Brexiteers today are in denial about the rather obstinate fact that they are now in a minority. Mid-term protest voting is time-honoured in this country and it's also time-honoured that hopeful parties that have benefited like to tell us that politics have changed forever. For sure, Labour has misjudged this severely. I agreed with the sentiment expressed by Emily Thornberry last night. Jezza may have his doubts about the EU (I mean, who hasn't?), but he has to start listening to his membership and Labour voters. We overwhelmingly don't want brexit, Jeremy. That's your starting point, and you got a very sharp reminder of that last night. The biggest Marxist I know voted LibDem last week. Bloody Nora...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 27 May 19 - 11:05 AM

does anyone know their policy on providing a brexit that works for anyone except the nicotine stained man frog?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 27 May 19 - 10:16 AM

Does anyone know the Brexit partys policy on defence, housing, education, health service, security, welfare, climate etc etc


.......................??


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 27 May 19 - 09:27 AM

Brexit has won 9 of 11 regions. According to electoral calculus, had it been a General Election Brexit would have taken 446 seats - a resounding majority.


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Mudcat time: 9 December 1:37 PM EST

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