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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

DMcG 10 Apr 19 - 02:25 AM
Backwoodsman 09 Apr 19 - 10:10 PM
Stanron 09 Apr 19 - 06:49 PM
mg 09 Apr 19 - 06:08 PM
Steve Shaw 09 Apr 19 - 05:01 PM
Raggytash 09 Apr 19 - 04:54 PM
Raggytash 09 Apr 19 - 03:41 PM
Monique 09 Apr 19 - 03:17 PM
Raggytash 09 Apr 19 - 03:09 PM
Bonnie Shaljean 09 Apr 19 - 02:21 PM
DMcG 09 Apr 19 - 01:26 PM
Backwoodsman 09 Apr 19 - 12:30 PM
Backwoodsman 09 Apr 19 - 12:26 PM
Steve Shaw 09 Apr 19 - 12:21 PM
DMcG 09 Apr 19 - 06:25 AM
Backwoodsman 09 Apr 19 - 03:06 AM
Bonnie Shaljean 08 Apr 19 - 08:34 PM
Bonnie Shaljean 08 Apr 19 - 08:29 PM
Donuel 08 Apr 19 - 07:52 PM
McGrath of Harlow 08 Apr 19 - 05:03 PM
Bonnie Shaljean 08 Apr 19 - 03:32 PM
DMcG 08 Apr 19 - 02:04 PM
Bonnie Shaljean 08 Apr 19 - 01:25 PM
McGrath of Harlow 08 Apr 19 - 01:24 PM
Backwoodsman 08 Apr 19 - 12:14 PM
Backwoodsman 08 Apr 19 - 10:50 AM
DMcG 08 Apr 19 - 10:18 AM
Iains 08 Apr 19 - 09:00 AM
DMcG 08 Apr 19 - 04:58 AM
Dave the Gnome 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM
Jim Carroll 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM
Steve Shaw 08 Apr 19 - 04:39 AM
Iains 08 Apr 19 - 04:33 AM
Steve Shaw 08 Apr 19 - 04:31 AM
Dave the Gnome 08 Apr 19 - 04:22 AM
DMcG 08 Apr 19 - 02:45 AM
McGrath of Harlow 07 Apr 19 - 07:02 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 06:49 PM
Steve Shaw 07 Apr 19 - 05:37 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 05:23 PM
Steve Shaw 07 Apr 19 - 04:51 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 04:49 PM
Steve Shaw 07 Apr 19 - 04:47 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 04:31 PM
McGrath of Harlow 07 Apr 19 - 04:20 PM
Mrrzy 07 Apr 19 - 03:08 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 02:56 PM
David Carter (UK) 07 Apr 19 - 02:40 PM
Jim Carroll 07 Apr 19 - 02:35 PM
peteaberdeen 07 Apr 19 - 02:33 PM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 02:25 AM

My experience is fairly similar to that. By way of illustration, around a week ago my wife and I met up with an old friend of hers recently who we hadn't seen or spoken to for perhaps 30 years. For several hours the topic of Brexit did not arise and then eventually she raised it in the most neutral terms she could and we responded in the same way. None of us wanted to get into a battle on what was a social occasion.

Then there is the point I think 'peteaberdeen' raised - "none of this really matters." While most of us care deeply about our country and fellow citizens, I think most of us also recognise that what we say on an obscure little website or over the pub table has no measurable effect on anything. When a million march, or 6 million sign a petition, it is enough to be acknowledged in Parliament, but the chances of it actually leading to a change is still quite small, but can certainly change the tone. I doubt if 'revoke' would be getting the consideration it is without the petition, for example.


But in ordinary day to day life? No, the topic is barely raised.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 10:10 PM

”I am totally confused and try to follow it. Just left england yesterday. Thought it would be discussed endlessly. Heard only a couple of people mention it. Rest radio silence.”

Mary, I think much depends on where you were, who you were with, and what you were doing.

The main TV news channels, Sky News and BBC news, are wall-to-wall Brexit right now, but if you weren’t watching TV news during your visit you might not be aware of that. And, of course, the papers are Brexit-Bonkers, full of all the latest doings of our politicians re Brexit.

But, as you might have gathered from this and the other Mudcat Brexit threads, Brexit has had a very unpleasant polarising effect here, and there are high emotions and strong feelings either way, so people (certainly in the circles in move in) are loath to open discussions of Brexit with strangers, or even friends and family, for fear of encountering conflict.

As an example my wife and I, having worked for many years in a company with strong EU links and having friendships with European colleagues, are very pro-EU and strong Remainers, whereas her parents are rabid, anti-immigration Brexiteers. We all made our positions crystal-clear before the referendum and, in the interests of family harmony, the subject of Brexit has been taboo ever since - we simply never refer to Brexit in their company.

And amongst our wider circle of friends and colleagues, it’s understood that Brexit is an emotive subject so, rather than getting into heated discussions, raising blood-pressures, and risking relationships, we and they keep our views to ourselves - the nearest I’ve got to a Brexit discussion face-to-face has been a very tentative, “Are you a Leaver or Remainer” from someone I hadn’t seen for thirty years and met up with for a lunch date, and a response of. “Oh!” and a rapid change of subject when I said I was a Remainer.

So I’m not surprised about your perception that it’s generally ‘Radio Silence’ - my own experience is that, unless they are amongst a circle of like-minded friends, people prefer not to risk the possibly unpleasant repercussions of in-person Brexit-talk and, TBH, I think most of us are sick to the back teeth of the sheer stupidity of the entire debacle.

I wonder if others here have the same experiences?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:49 PM

A long exit is now considered to be possible. A long extension to our exit was never my first preference. However it will give leavers the chance to get rid of Mrs May, (who has failed in all her objectives) and elect a new leader. There is a chance that a new leader will actually believe in Brexit. If the Tory party cannot supply a leader who believes in Brexit it doesn't deserve to rule, and, probably, won't rule for maybe a decade or more.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mg
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:08 PM

I am totally confused and try to follow it. Just left england yesterday. Thought it would be discussed endlessly. Heard only a couple of people mention it. Rest radio silence.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 05:01 PM

Oops for the second time today, Bonnie! ;-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 04:54 PM

PS I forgot to ask ............... any good news about Brexit yet?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:41 PM

Thank you Monique.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Monique
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:17 PM

Link


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:09 PM

In addition to all the negative forecast over the past three years the IMF today has predicted a 2 year recession for the UK should we crash out without a deal and also predicts 'long-lasting negative impacts' on both the UK and the EU.

I suspect that the EU will be able to cope with such impact far better than the UK.

Could someone please link to the article in todays Guardian' it's under the main banner headline.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 02:21 PM

Oborne piece is here:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-m


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 01:26 PM

With talk of "perfidious Albion" as if it is something to be proud of, several threatening   disruption at the EU (again as if it was praiseworthy), and criticism of the queen for not blocking Copper's bill, there is still "room for improvement" as many a school report has said.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:30 PM

Perhaps the Brexiteers-with-Brains are finally coming to their senses? Just a real shame it’s taken so long, and they’ve got us into this disastrous debacle that’s made the U.K. the laughing-stock of the world - even more than the US.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:26 PM

That’s the article that Bonnie linked to above I think, Steve?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:21 PM

Amazingly, Peter Oborne, Mail columnist and arch-brexiteer, has changed his mind. There's a long piece by him on the opendemocracy.net website. It an enticing read by a man who now makes most of the points and more that remainers have always made.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:25 AM

It seems 'Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has just told ITV that it would be "fantastic" if the EU were willing to reopen negotiations on the controversial Northern Ireland backstop'


Yes, that the EU might reopen the Withdrawal agreement at this stage is indeed fantastical thinking.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:06 AM

I'm guessing that Max has been doing some major work on Mudcat's innards - it's been like this here in The Backwoods for three weeks or more.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 08:34 PM

And that's precisely what has had the ERGs throwing tantrums. Which have all been epic fails.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 08:29 PM

(Sorry - having AWFUL hassles getting Mudcat to post stuff)

How can you possibly know that two days before the PM herself does? Europe doesn't want a SHORT extension, but have repeatedly indicated they'd be open to a flexible long one. That's been repeated in several of the E27 heads' Twitter feeds. Barnier was here (Ireland) today. He and Varadkar had this to say:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-varadkar-tells-may-of-openness-to-deadline-extension-1.3853160


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 07:52 PM

Well stick me in an Anderson shelter and call me shorty.
You are finally out of extensions.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 05:03 PM

O course asking for an extension doesn't mean getting it. The only extension she could get is a long one - and there has to be something that could get things sorted, such as a public vote of some kind.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 03:32 PM

It's passed the Lords. Graun live feed sez:

The Cooper Letwin Bill has been given an unopposed third reading in the Lords and now goes back to the Commons. The Leader of the Commons has said the government will not stand in its way and will schedule time for debate tomorrow if the Bill gets royal assent this evening. But Andrea Leadsom has denounced the Bill as a “huge dog’s dinner”.

Well, she WOULD, wouldn't she?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 02:04 PM

In addition to finally admitting they need to find and prepare candidates to contest the EU elections, the government also seems to think Cooper's bill will get passed today:


The Commons Leader, Andrea Leadsom, has confirmed the government is expected to bring forward a motion to extend the Brexit process. Making a business statement to MPs, she has said:

In the event the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 5) Bill receives royal assent today, the House may be expected to approve a motion relating to section one of the Bill – to seek an extension of the period specified in Article 50 (3) of the Treaty on European Union.


(I - and I imagine thousands of others - got an email from Labour two days asking if I wanted to put my name forward as a MEP candidate. I think not.)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 01:25 PM

Even some hardline Tory journalists are changing their minds:

"I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again"

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-m


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 01:24 PM

It really doesn't matter whether the ERG vote for the deal or not, even if Theresa manages to get another vote on it. The DUP is never going to accept it - they see it as damaging their link to Britain, and losing Brexit is no threat to them. Nor is the SNP, for markedly different reasons (they see it as damaging their hopes of getting out of the Union). Which means, without the backing of at least a bunch of Labour or Liberal MPs, it could never pass, even if every single Tory came on board.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 12:14 PM

Sorry, that shoulda bin ‘the smug, obnoxious Bridgen’.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 10:50 AM

I never thought I’d draw pleasure from agreeing with a Tory Lord, but when Finkelstein told the obnoxious Bridgen the truth on PL today, I could have kissed him (almost...)!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 10:18 AM

Daniel Finkelstein, the Conservative peer and Times columnist, made this comment on Politics Live Andrew Bridgen, but I am sure he believes it applies to all the Brexiteers in Parliament:


You have not got the votes in parliament. It is really hard dealing with this, because it seems to me so daft, to use a polite word for it. You can’t get no-deal through parliament because 400 MPs are against it. It doesn’t matter who the leader of the Conservative party is. This is not about Theresa May. And one of the reasons you failed to get rid of her last time you pointlessly made a vote of no confidence in her, that just resulted in strengthening her for a year, is that getting rid of her would make no difference. And it is failing to appreciate that that has meant that you have over-played your hand, over and over again, and are going to end up possibly with a second referendum on a soft Brexit, and possibly a Corbyn government thrown in. The tactical stupidity of this is breathtaking


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 09:00 AM

"ERG refusenik Mark Francois has written to Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, calling for an “informal ‘Indicative Vote'” on Theresa May’s leadership of the Conservative Party. The rules say that formal votes initiated by letters to the 1922 Committee chairman can only take place once a year…

The letter doesn’t hold back, beginning with “Enough is enough! If she goes by Wednesday we can Leave on Friday.” It ends with “she said ‘I will continue to serve fior as long as you wish me to’, it is now time to test that wish.”

What a fine fellow!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:58 AM

I have just watched a Royal Institution programme on mathematical errors (I know, I know) and, for a couple of examples (one on lei lines and one on people being photographed as a child with a future spouse in the background) it talked about something closely linked to confirmation bias. Anyway, the salient point applies to Brexit, even though it was not mentioned in the lecture:

You cannot demonstrate a no-deal is working by pointing to examples where is has worked (or, for example, how well prepared the civil service is). What you have to show is the paucity of examples where it has not worked (eg how few people who are not civil servants are unprepared.)

I thought it worth making that clarification at the start of this week where something or nothing might finally happen.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM

You could be right, Steve. I had the idea that the whole negotiation fiasco was a charade to ensure we stay in the EU without the Tories losing face. They are trying to figure out a way to blame someone else for their cock up. Up to now they seem to be failing on that front as well. We can but hope :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM

"I'm predicting that we won't leave the EU. I don't know why I think that..."
Hope springs eternal Steve
At the rate things are moving, I doubt if many of us will be around to see it happen - our legacy to our grandchildren, may their god help them
Jim


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:39 AM

Shhh, everybody...

I'm predicting that we won't leave the EU. I don't know why I think that...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:33 AM

I will second that. The thread is supposed to be about brexit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:31 AM

Seconded. It would be good if we just didn't mention him at all and even better if we just ignore any new posts.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:22 AM

Many thanks to whoever cleaned up the mess. It must have been a dirty job and your efforts are much appreciated.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 02:45 AM

Britain poised for authoritarianism

While it is never a idea to take any survey too literally especially when looking at the exact percentages, this one does seem to raise a genuine concern. Parliament has certainly not covered itself in glory for a long time and, while you might pick out different things depending on which you side of the referendum you choose, there are plenty of things that are problematical. Trump, whatever your view of him, is not a eule-follower and there is no reason at all the UK could not end up with someone in power even less concerned with the rules. Brexit is certainly a mechanism that could be exploited to assist them.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 07:02 PM

All kinds of plausible reasons, Steve, as there are for most mistakes. But for all that, it turned out to be a bad misjudgement. Didn't do anything to stop UKIP. At the very least they could have made support for the referendum dependant on some sensible ground rules.

There was a petition that got a few million votes at the time, calling for a guarantee of a second vote to be triggered if the winning sides margin was less than 5% and the turnout less than 75%. It was started by a Leave supporter before the referendum (who expected to lose) but was signed by millions of Remainers as well as Leavers. That would have been a very sensible requirement.

And the example of the Scottish referendum should have been followed - that achieved a turnout of over 80%, with voting open to everyone of 16 up, including migrants from the EU - the people who stood to be most affected by the result in 2016, along with logterm British expats in Europe, who were also denied a vote.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 06:49 PM

ivor cutler? though he isn't a great marriage prospect....


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 05:37 PM

Bugger that, Pete. I've considered the same move meself and I'm 67! Can't make up my mind whether my numero uno hero is Beethoven...or Virgil...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 05:23 PM

you aren't on your own, steve. however, are you suggesting that VvDyke's mam would not be proud to have a 63 year old jags fan in the family? i'm insulted. again


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 04:51 PM

Now 'scuse me, chaps, as I have to pen a letter to the mods about this bloke. I understand that they don't normally bother with Brit threads but I think they could consider bothering with this one. It would be good to think that I wasn't the only one doing it. Cheers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 04:49 PM

well, i've been quite disciplined for long enough but now i think i just don't have to put up with this offensive shit.

mods? where are you? or is blatant racism and insulting disabled people ok?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 04:47 PM

Your Virgil idea was the best one, Pete. What a man. WHAT a man! But he loves his mum (honest), so you may have to get past her first...

30 grand could give you an awful lot of security. You can get a risk-free ISA with 20 grand of it with Coventry Building Society, fixed rate for five years, at 2.15%. And they are ethical. The other ten grand, maybe do up your place, get a better car and have a nice holiday or two.

Kevin, the reason Labour MPs (etc) voted in favour of a referendum, then in favour of Article 50, was that they would have been toast if they hadn't. There was a burgeoning wave of UKIP-led populism to contend with, so they yielded. Plus they had a severely mistaken inkling that it didn't matter in the first case because they were certain that remain would win.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 04:31 PM

you could say 'holding the conservative party together' and i'm sure that's true. you could also say scared of grubby little fascists like farage and yaxley - lennon and the lunatic fringe of her own party. very few in politics - including the labour party -has had the courage to stand up to these people. i know this is not easy since the death of jo cox, but it should have happened long ago. remember the opening ceremony of the london olympics? what happened to that positive picture of who we are?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 04:20 PM

May's priority throughout has been trying to find some way of holding the Conservative Party together. All the rest is just flannel.
......

It's not wholly fair to put all the blame for the referendum of 2016, and for it being designed in such a stupid way (eg, no requirement for a 5% majority) on David Cameron. The vote to hold it was backed by all political parties in Westminster apart from the SNP.

Of course he carries all the responsibility for breaking his repeated promise to stay on if Remain lost till a successor was found, and skkedaddled the next day. That's why we got saddled with a coronation for May.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 03:08 PM

But about May, I am confused, slightly. Did she not herself vote Remain? And did not the guy in charge at the time run like a hare, leaving Brexit in her lap? And hasn't May, in contrast, been staunch in her efforts to do *what the voters said they wanted*? Why isn't anyone (seemingly) blaming those voters?
Oh, and I'm a Mrrican, not from UK or Europe myself.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 02:56 PM

thanks, i think i will do that. but i'd better be quick as my local santander branch is about to close


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 02:40 PM

You can get a Euro account with a UK bank, I have one with Barclays. I keep thinking I will move some cash from my sterling accounts to my Euro account, but then I think the exchange rate cannot get worse. Then of course it does. To think, if it hadn't been for Gordon Brown, we could have gone in at 1.6!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 02:35 PM

"wallowing black mammals"
Your descrioption - nobody else's
I've just requested that a friend on this forum complain about this behavior - I would extend that to all here - he has no intention of stopping his attempts to make this a hate platform
I have Irish friends who stopped posting to this site because of the anti-Irish racism emanating from a few posters
It was mild compared to this filth
Jim Carroll


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 07 Apr 19 - 02:33 PM

and while i'm here does anyone have any financial expertise? as my dad died last year and we sold his house, i have some money for the first time in my life (about 30K) (obviously, he voted to leave and then died while his family all disagreed and voted positively) anyway, as it seems we are about to leave in some turmoil or at least be in some state for a while - what should i do with me money? we've thought of moving to estonia or glasgow or italy to be nearer family but we have some commitments here (or lack the courage) can i just buy euros and bank them abroad? (my default plan is to marry virgil van dyke (i must have a need for security) and get a dutch passport and live off his money but that could be difficult eh?)


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