Mudcat Café message #4084810 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #168430   Message #4084810
Posted By: DMcG
24-Dec-20 - 02:22 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
So supposedly the deal is done and we will be told something about it in about 50 minutes time. That means now is a good time for rash predictions!

Kipling advised that when meeting Triumph and Disaster to treat those two imposters just the same. I am sure that will apply here. Some will proclaim a great Triumph - not least Boris! - but many more will denounce it as a betrayal, notably Farage and a good proportion of the ERG. Their protests will count for nothing in the short term, since Starmer will whip Labour to vote for it. (He *might* risk a free vote, but I think it extremely unlikely.)

Starmer's speeches in Parliament will all be about how poor a deal it is, how it sells the country short and is almost the worst possible outcome. But no-deal is worse, and that is why he will support the deal. It is a tricky stance, but gives him the best positioning for potential supporters, whether they voted Leave or Remain.

So I don't see the UK voting against the deal.

There is a possibility, maybe even quite a large probability, of an EU country using their veto to stop the deal, but this will largely be posturing to make a political point, and perhaps get more funding from the rest of the EU; I think all the EU states will agree before the year is out.

The deal is actually about trade and security. Of the two, I think the security is more important, but I expect the media to concentrate on the trade aspect. Not that trade is unimportant, but I think any hiatus would be addressed much more quickly than a breakdown in the security relationships.