Mudcat Café message #4001259 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #4001259
Posted By: Iains
20-Jul-19 - 04:00 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
For someone who declares zero confidence in forecasts, you seem quite keen on them for some things like election results.
Well you have to put them in some kind of context.
When opposing parties are polling within 10% of one another predicting outcomes is best left alone. I would suggest 10%is the intrinsic inaccuracy of polls on a sunny day.
It also depends upon the question being asked and where we stand in time relative to the outcome being polled.
To ask voting intentions for a general election today indicates nothing of significance. The same poll a week before may have more meaning.
How much accuracy you assign to a specific poll is dependent upon a variety of factors, but even when outcomes seem certain, surprises can occur. At the end of the day a poll is simply a forecast and is best regarded as having the same accuracy as a weather forecast.
A prime example would be the brexit party. It polls all over the place, seemingly impacted by the state of the tides and phases of the moon. It swept the board for the EU elections, but how likely would similar gains be in a General Election? It would be largely determined by the behaviour of the incoming PM(ie whether perceived as closet remainer or leaver) and by the perceived stance of Labour on Brexit.
The recent local elections showed huge defections from both major parties with a protest vote going to the libdems. The brexit party had no role in those elections and many MPs have defied their electorate on Brexit. Any no confidence vote forcing an election would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for christmas.
This will enable us to see our Mps in their true colours.
Will it be morality or Mammon wins the day?