Mudcat Café message #3992478 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #3992478
Posted By: Iains
15-May-19 - 05:32 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
very little point in trying to make a factual statement if the entire argument is predicated on "We estimate"

While accepting the Nobel prize for economics, Friedrich Hayek made an astonishing admission. Not only were economists unsure about their predictions, he noted, but their tendency to present their findings with the certainty of the language of science was misleading and “may have deplorable effects”.

Prakash Loungani at the IMF analysed the accuracy of economic forecasters and found something remarkable and worrying. “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” he said.

His analysis revealed that economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions