Mudcat Café message #3983026 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #3983026
Posted By: DMcG
19-Mar-19 - 03:47 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
There's a slight danger that the EU's forbearance will run out and that they'll tell her to sod off later this week

It may not be as slight as all that, thought I don't think it probable. The words 'traitor' and 'traitorous' have been widely abused and thrown at the slightest provocation, so I am hesitant about using them at all. But since a near text book example would be to encourage a foreign power to act against your government's stated wishes, I can't think of a more appropriate term for Iain Duncan Smith's and Owen Patterson's reported attempts to persuade Hungary and other countries to veto any request from the UK for an extension.

I see two routes to a no-deal as live at the moment. The more likely one is that the EU does not agree to an extension, most likely because of a veto. Should that happen, Bercow will not be able to allow a vote on the deal unless a substantial change is made, under his own ruling. So some amendment will be made to the deal - perhaps by making explicit mechanisms for the rest of Parliament to have a role in the future negotiations. Should Bercow not agree this is sufficient, or should that fail, we could be into no-deal.

The less likely one is that the EU agrees to an extension, but attaches conditions of such severity that Parliament does not accept the extension. As this would require people who votes against no-deal to now prefer it to the conditions, they would have to be very extreme.

(A third path opens if an extension permits a complete restart of the negotiations, but I do not think that is something the EU would consider.)