Mudcat Café message #3974083 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #3974083
Posted By: DMcG
30-Jan-19 - 02:19 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
One of the things at risk of being under-reported is that the Spelman amendment to oppose a no-deal was carried by 8.   

It has long been reported that a majority of the House are against no deal, and at first sight this bears that out. The margin is probably an underestimate, because May promised there would be another opportunity to oppose no-deal in February. Also, the fact that the vote was entirely symbolic adds fogginess: some will vote in favour of the amendment because it has no consequences, and some will not vote for it and risk upsetting the voters at home precisely because it has no effect.

But with all that said, 8 is a very thin margin. I am not at all confident that if it came to it, the House would oppose a no-deal in the final moments. There is something in game theory called 'The Tragedy of the Commons' (in the sense of commonly owned land); it is ironic that the House of Commons looks like it will be a perfect example.

Over on the earlier thread, I referred to a prediction Nigel had made that we would leave on 31st on WTO rules, whereas I predicted come the 1st April we would still be trying to decide what we are doing. That the house voted to adopt the policy of 'Wait for the Other Guy to Blink' (even though this is the antithesis of #taking back control') means I think Nigel's prediction is now the more likely. If May comes back in February with nothing from the EU, the house will simply say "Ah, that's what we expected. Let's keep waiting, the EU will crack in the end."