Mudcat Café message #3796126 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #160019   Message #3796126
Posted By: Teribus
16-Jun-16 - 03:54 PM
Thread Name: BS: To Br/Exit Or Not To Br/Exit
Subject: RE: BS: To Br/Exit Or Not To Br/Exit
"There is no realistic possibility that the UK - or whatever is left of it when the dust settles and Scotland has probably gone - will be treated differently. That would require every single other country agreeing to that, and they won't. And free trade with the EU is going to be necessary for the UK. We won't be able to set up bilateral free trade with Individual EU countries."

The UK is the EU's second largest net contributor after Germany
The UK makes up 12.4% of the population of the EU
Within the EU the UK is Germany's largest customer

The above constitutes negotiating leverage with the country that is the economic driving force of the EU - Germany - they are not renowned for cutting off their noses to spite their face. When push comes to shove pragmatism is more their style.

Within the EU over 80% of Scotland's trade is within the UK.
The UK is a member of the EU, Scotland is not, should the UK decide to leave the EU, then Scotland would have to apply to join - and every single other member would have to agree to that - Off the top of my head I can think of six who would block Scotland for reasons centred about what those countries see as their own best interests.

"free trade with the EU is going to be necessary for the UK"

As we buy more from them than they do from us, and considering the economic state of the EU and the Eurozone, I would suggest that the boot is very much on the other foot.

"We won't be able to set up bilateral free trade with Individual EU countries UK."

Maybe, maybe not, but it does mean that we can set up bilateral trade with other countries that we are at present unable to do due to our EU membership.