Mudcat Café message #3556325 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #151984   Message #3556325
Posted By: Ron Davies
05-Sep-13 - 11:29 AM
Thread Name: BS: chemical weapons in Syria
Subject: RE: BS: chemical weapons in Syria
This has all the earmarks of a classic political disaster for Obama.   He and his administration did not think this through.   And I speak as one who has strongly supported him and does believe that the use of chemical weapons should be prevented.

But this is in fact a trap he has set for himself.

It is very unlikely that even the compromise resolution cited above will be passed by Congress.

The combination of skepticism on the left and a solid anti-Obama group on the right will likely defeat the resolution.   

And in fact there is no justification for the US going it alone.    The Arab states in the region should be leading this effort.   They have gone on record as against the use of chemical weapons by Assad.    But look at their actual attitude: the following states are against any attack unless sanctioned by the UN:      Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Tunesia and Algeria.

And with Russia and China both against any attack, what chance do you suppose UN support for such an attack would have.

So let's consider an attack without UN support. The UK would not be participating in the attack.   Would France?   Again, doubtful. In theory the French government does not need legislative OK for such participation.   But in fact, since both the US and UK leaderships have asked their legislatures for such assent, it's likely the French leadership would feel compelled to do so.   And it may well be defeated in such a move.

So what's the likely outcome?    The Obama administration, despite the passion of Mr. Kerry---and even some outside the Obama administration, such as Senator McCain---will not have the votes to get this through.

So it will be defeated. And Obama will not make at attack without it.

It could even be argued that Obama will be fine with this---he can assert that he tried to prevent use by Assad of chemical weapons but was prevented in doing so by Congress.

To be continued