Mudcat Café message #2042201 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #101287   Message #2042201
Posted By: GUEST,Minerva
03-May-07 - 09:13 AM
Thread Name: BS: Things you should only do once...
Subject: RE: BS: Things you should only do once...
Buy the "No 12" at the craps table.

Although it is far and away the bet most likely to win a one-shot bet in a casino (pays 1 1/2 - to 1), the odds are still against you in the long run, so the more you bet it, the more likely you are to lose it all. If you bet it into the theoretical "long run", you are guaranteed to lose it all.

Somehow I find this philosophically satisfying, as an allegory for so much of life.

It was after Einstein stated emphatically that "God does not roll dice," and was later proven wrong, that it became obvious that nearly the entire universe is ruled by statistics - ranging from where an electron is likely to be in its orbit, to which radioactive nucleus will decay next, to which planets might be capable of supporting life, to which cells will split to make a new critter, to which soldier catches the artillery shell while his buddy doesn't.

Remember the person who was sitting at the computer one morning when a voice came out of nowhere, "Quit jour job, sell all you own, take the cash, go to Vegas." Person thinks nothing of it. Later the voice comes back, "Quit jour job, sell all you own, take the cash, go to Vegas." This goes on periodically for days, "Quit jour job, sell all you own, take the cash, go to Vegas," and the person thinks there may be something to this Voice. After a week, person breaks down, quits the job, sells everything, including the house, goes to Vegas. Voice says, "Go to the Horseshoe Casino." Person goes to the Horseshoe. Voice says, "Bet it all on the "No 12". Person puts the suitcase full of hundreds on the felt, dealer says, "Money plays," Pit Boss says, "Go ahead". Shooter rolls the dice. Twelve. Voice says, "Fuck."