Mudcat Café message #1695764 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #89766   Message #1695764
Posted By: Ron Davies
16-Mar-06 - 10:43 PM
Thread Name: BS: Why no new Iraq thread?
Subject: RE: BS: Why no new Iraq thread?
What's interesting is that it may distract all right--but distracting from Bush's 34% approval rating is not its only appeal to him. It will also distract from something much more important--polls are after all just snapshots--the next will be different-- and can be heavily influenced by wording.

Far more important than the current "Aw gee" campaign (tip of the hat to Robin) -- or whatever W calls it-- is the fact that hardly any progress is being made towards a "unity government" in Iraq--and that's what Bush has hung his presidency on. No matter how many "insurgents" are killed, it won't help Bush unless a stable Iraq government results--and soon--before the sorely tried patience of the US public is gone.

But the Kurds have never wanted to be part of Iraq--ever since the "birth" of Iraq, a jerry-built structure put together in 1921--not, as some think, a civilization thousands of years old. Churchill brought the Kurds (unwillingly) into Iraq, at the request of the imported leader (from Arabia!)--to try to balance the Shiite majority. The Babylonians, Assyrians, etc. have nothing to do with modern Iraq except as tourist draws and possible sources of propaganda (a la Mussolini and the Romans). Both the Kurds and the Shiites would be happy to control their own sections of Iraq--and the oil that goes with them. The Kurds are already doing deals with international oil companies--and not consulting the "Iraq government". Their de facto independence would be helped even more with a census and referendum in Kirkuk--which is in the constitution.

That would leave the Sunnis in central Iraq (but also Baghdad with its boiling cauldron of rivalries) out of luck--very little oil in central Iraq.

I understand the constitution also states that while income from current oil deposits is to be divided on a per capita basis among all Iraqis, new deposits will be the property of the province where found. Again, bad luck for the Sunnis--the Sunni minority, who ruled the majority for several decades.

As a result, even after an acceptable leader is found --(the parliamentary session today lasted 40 minutes, then adjourned until further notice)--either the constitution must be changed drastically or the insurgency will likely have a bottomless pool of recruits.

It will be a long road to stability in Iraq--if they ever get there--a breakup is at least as likely.

This attack is just a smokescreen for the continuing impasse.