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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
DMcG BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture? (4164* d) RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture? 17 May 19


According to today's Telegraph:

The latest polling average puts Nigel Farageís Brexit Party ahead of the two major parties, on 30 per cent compared to Labourís 21 per cent and the Toriesí 12 per cent.


That is around what UKIP were polling before the previous EU elections (one of the polls last time put UKIP on 38%.)

Despite all the noise and bluster, it is looking like Brexit is going to be a fairly straightforward replacement of UKIP last time. After all, even Farage has said the policies are the same.

How that will translate into seats, I will not predict, because it will depend very much on turnout, which I suspect will be higher than normal. How those percentages and the distribution of turnout interact in the end I would not like to guess.


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