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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
DMcG BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture? (2634* d) RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture? 29 Apr 19


Tomorrow night the NEC has to finalise the Labour manifesto for the EU elections, so here are my thoughts on how the argument will go.

Forget what is good for the country, or Labour core principles or other abstractions. It will all be a numbers game, driven as cold-heartedly as possible. Currently most polls have Labour and the Brexit party in a two horse race, and about equal numbers.

Option 1 is to come out as Remain/Revoke/Confirmatory referendum. This will upset Leave voters who have stayed under the Labour umbrella, and a goodly fraction would move from Labour to the Brexit Party. Labour is weakened and the Brexit Party strengthened.

Option 2 is to come out as Brexit. This will make a good few remain supporters move the Green or Change UK, but obviously none will move to the Brexit Party. However, some people in the Brexit Party will be there who are Labour at heart but did not trust it to leave. They may move back. So this option may leave Labour more or less the same on numbers, but weaken Nigel.

Option 3 is to stay ambiguous. They will probably have some Labour voters move to Green or ChangeUK in frustration, but almost all of this will already have happened.

Conclusion:
Most likely: stay ambiguous
Next most likely: Come out for Brexit
Least likely: Confirmatory vote.


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